智慧农业导刊2025，Vol.5Issue(14)：29-32,36,5.DOI:10.20028/j.zhnydk.2025.14.008
未来气候变化对屏边三七地理分布的影响评价
摘要
Abstract
Panax stipuleanatus is a Class Ⅱ nationally protected wild plant in China with significant medicinal value.However,its narrow geographical distribution,high sensitivity to climatic conditions,and endangered wild populations pose critical conservation challenges.This study utilized 19 distribution records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim to simulate current and future shifts in suitable habitats for Panax stipuleanatus under climate change scenarios using the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt).The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy(AUC=0.997).Current highly suitable habitats span approximately 133 409 km2,concentrated in southern Yunnan Province,China(e.g.,Wenshan Prefecture and Honghe Prefecture)and northern Vietnam.Future projections revealed divergent trends:under the ssp245 scenario(2021-2040),suitable areas expanded by 38.7％,whereas by 2041-2060,the ssp585 scenario projected a 14％decline in suitable areas under ssp245 but a significant increase to 211,851 km2 under ssp585.Key climatic drivers included mean annual temperature(Bio1,contribution rate 26％)and annual precipitation(Bio12,contribution rate 23.8％),with optimal conditions identified as a mean temperature of 16.6℃,annual precipitation of 1,782.6 mm,and annual temperature range of 19.3℃.The study highlights the sensitivity of Panax stipuleanatus habitats to climate change.While high-emission scenarios(e.g.,ssp585)may expand suitable areas in the long term,extreme climatic shifts could exacerbate habitat fragmentation.Targeted conservation strategies,including habitat protection and optimized artificial cultivation,are urgently needed to ensure both species survival and sustainable utilization of medicinal resources.These findings provide a scientific foundation for the conservation of endangered species and sustainable management of medicinal plants under global climate change.关键词
气候变化/预测/濒危物种/环境变量/适生区Key words
climate change/prediction/endangered species/environmental variable/suitable areas分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
徐强,胡淑青,刘海军,廖辉,欧恒,李大千..未来气候变化对屏边三七地理分布的影响评价[J].智慧农业导刊,2025,5(14):29-32,36,5.基金项目
广州海关科研项目(2022GZCK15) （2022GZCK15）
