中医正骨2025，Vol.37Issue(6)：1-7,18,8.
1990-2021年中国10～24岁年龄段人群痛风的疾病负担和风险因素分析及2022-2035年中国10～24岁年龄段人群痛风的疾病负担预测
Analyzing the disease burden and risk factors of gout during 1990-2021 and projecting the future burden during 2022-2035 in the Chinese 10-24-year-olds
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the disease burden and risk factors of gout among the Chinese 10-24-year-olds during 1990-2021,and to project the future gout-related disease burden for the period of 2022-2035.Methods:Data on the disease burden of gout in the Chinese and global individuals aged 10-24 years,and the risk factors for gout within this age group in China,were retrieved and extracted from the global burden of disease(GBD)study public database.After that,the"Table Results"function within the JD_GBDR_V2.36 soft-ware was employed to compare and analyze the disease burden of gout among the Chinese and global 10-24-year-olds in 2021,and the di-sease burden of gout across different age subgroups within the Chinese 10-24 cohort in 1990 and 2021,meanwhile,the temporal trends in the disease burden of gout among the Chinese 10-24-year-olds from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed by gender.Furthermore,the risk factors for gout among the Chinese 10-24-year-olds during 1990-2021 were analyzed using the"Risk Analysis"function,and the disease burden of gout in this individuals for the period of 2022-2035 was projected using the"Projection Analysis"function.Results:①Disease burden of gout among the 10-24-year-olds in 2021:China versus worldwide.In 2021,the number of prevalent cases and incident cases,and the disa-bility-adjusted life years(DALYs)of gout among the Chinese 10-24-year-olds accounted for 18.63％,19.51％,and 18.70％of the global totals in this age group,respectively,and the prevalence,incidence,and DALY rates of gout were higher in this Chinese population com-pared to the corresponding global ones.②Disease burden of gout across different age subgroups within the 10-24-year-olds in China:1990 versus 2021.Compared with that in 1990,the Chinese 10-24-year-olds in 2021 exhibited 36.38％(95％UI(33.05％,39.47％)),35.49％(95％UI(32.96％,38.05％))and 36.38％(95％UI(33.05％,39.47％))reductions in gout prevalent cases,incident cases,and DALYs,respectively,with the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)of 0.72(95％UI(0.26,1.19)),0.78(95％UI(0.33,1.24)),and0.72(95％UI(0.26,1.19))in prevalence rate,incidence rate,and DALY rate,respectively.Among the 15-19-year-olds,the gout prevalent cases,incident cases,and DALYs decreased by 35.29％(95％UI(26.19％,40.33％)),35.37％(95％UI(26.39％,40.46％)),and 35.29％(95％UI(26.19％,40.33％)),respectively,with the EAPC of 0.33(95％UI(0.31,0.35)),0.33(95％UI(0.31,0.34)),and 0.33(95％UI(0.32,0.35))in prevalence rate,incidence rate,and DALY rate,respectively.Among the 20-24-year-olds,the gout prevalent cases,incident cases,and DALYs decreased by 36.49％(95％UI(33.20％,39.74％)),35.51％(95％UI(33.10％,38.19％)),and 36.49％(95％UI(33.20％,39.74％)),respectively,with the EAPC of 0.54(95％UI(0.50,0.59)),0.63(95％UI(0.57,0.69)),and 0.54(95％UI(0.49,0.59))in prevalence rate,incidence rate,and DALY rate,respectively.③Temporal trends in the disease burden of gout among 10-24-year-olds in china by gender:1990-2021.During 1990-2021,the gout burden met-rics,including prevalent cases,prevalence rate,incident cases,incidence rate,DALYs,and DALY rate,presented a biphasic trajectory of ini-tial decline followed by resurgence and subsequent re-decline among the Chinese 10-24-year-olds,as well as the male and female 10-24-year-olds.Notably,the six metrics in the males consistently exceeded the corresponding values in females within this age group.④Risk fac-tors for gout-related DALYs among 10-24-year-olds in China:1990-2021.Among the Chinese 10-24-year-olds,the key risk factors for gout-related DALYs include metabolic abnormalities,high body mass index(BMI),and renal dysfunction.From 1990 to 2021,the proportion of DALYs attributable to high BMI and metabolic abnormalities demonstrated an increasing trajectory,whereas the proportion attributable to renal dysfunction exhibited a declining trajectory.⑤Projection of disease burden of gout among 10-24-year-olds in China:2022-2035.During 2022-2035,the gout prevalence rate presented a declining trajectory among the male 10-24-year-olds,while a modest biphasic trajectory of minor initial decline followed by marginal increase among the females;and the incidence rate showed a biphasic trajectory of initial ascend followed by reduction among the male 10-24-year-olds,while a modest biphasic trajectory of minor initial decline followed by marginal increase among the females;whereas,the DALY rate remain essentially stable among the male and female 10-24-year-olds.Conclusion:During 1990-2021,the Chinese 10-24-year-olds carried a substantial gout-related disease burden,with metabolic abnormali-ties,high BMI,and renal dysfunction constituting primary risk factors,they are still projected to face a substantial gout-related disease bur-den during 2022-2035,targeted interventions for prevention and management in this population are warranted.关键词
痛风/中国/青少年/年轻人/疾病负担/患病率/发病率/伤残调整寿命年Key words
gout/China/adolescent/young adult/disease burden/prevalence/incidence/disability-adjusted life years引用本文复制引用
胡均立,潘赐明,石行,李仪杰..1990-2021年中国10～24岁年龄段人群痛风的疾病负担和风险因素分析及2022-2035年中国10～24岁年龄段人群痛风的疾病负担预测[J].中医正骨,2025,37(6):1-7,18,8.基金项目
云南省南药可持续利用研究重点实验室开放课题(202105AG070012XS2242) （202105AG070012XS2242）
