当代经济管理2025，Vol.47Issue(8)：80-96,17.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2025.08.010
全球货币网络演变特征及影响机制
The Evolution Characteristics and Impact Mechanism of the Global Monetary Network:A Discussion on the Change of RMB's Position
摘要
Abstract
This study examines 34 global economies from July 2005 to December 2023,employing a TVP-VAR-DY model to construct a global monetary network.It investigates the evolutionary characteristics,its impact mechanisms,and the role of the Chinese yuan(RMB)in this network from the per-spective of exchange rate transmission.The results show that:the evolution of the global monetary network is divided into three phases:"stabilization period","adjustment period",and"remodeling period".The trend of international monetary system pattern reform is increasingly obvious.The net-work density follows a U-shaped trajectory,transitioning from high to low and back to high density,with fluctuating changes in the efficiency of mone-tary influence.The network's center shows signs of shifting eastward,evolving from a bipolar structure dominated by the United States and Europe to-ward a multipolar configuration involving the United States,Europe,and China.The RMB's position in the global monetary network is still relatively low.Still,it is generally on the rise,and its dependence on a single node in the network is gradually decreasing;its regional influence is mainly con-centrated in Asia and Africa,as well as developing countries and countries along the"Belt and Road".The evolution of the global monetary network is driven by endogenous factors,including interdependence effects,structural dependence effects,and temporal dependence effects,as well as exogenous mechanisms such as economic scale,trade volume,financial development,capital openness,and geographic,cultural,and historical networks.关键词
汇率传导指数/货币网络演变/国际货币体系/人民币地位/影响机制Key words
exchange rate transmission index/the evolution of the monetary network/the global monetary system/RMB position/impact mechanism分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杨渝镜,丁文丽,胡列曲..全球货币网络演变特征及影响机制[J].当代经济管理,2025,47(8):80-96,17.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"多层次国际金融中心有序推进人民币国际化的机制与路径研究"(23BJL063) （23BJL063）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"云南与周边国家金融合作的异质性约束及人民币区域化的实现机制与路径研究"(U2002201) （U2002201）
云南省哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目"面向南亚东南亚跨境数字经济"(2024CX05) （2024CX05）
云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金重点项目"二十国集团金融依赖网络格局演变及中国地位变迁"(YJSJJ25-A10). （YJSJJ25-A10）
