护理与康复2025，Vol.24Issue(8)：14-19,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-9875.2025.08.003
肿瘤化学治疗患者PICC导管相关血流感染风险预测模型的构建与验证
Development and validation of a risk prediction model for PICC catheter related bloodstream infection in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy
摘要
Abstract
Objective To identify risk factors for PICC catheter related bloodstream infection in cancer patients undergo-ing chemotherapy using Cox regression analysis,develop a corresponding risk prediction model,and perform internal valida-tion.Methods A single-center cohort study was conducted involving 385 cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy who re-ceived PICC placement in Lishui People's Hospital from January 2022 to December 2023.Patients were followed for 12 months.Independent risk factors for PICC catheter related bloodstream infection were identified using univariate and mul-tivariate Cox regression analyses,and a risk prediction model was subsequently constructed.The model's predictive performance and internal validity were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and K-fold cross-validation.Results Among the 385 patients,43 patients(11.2%)developed PICC catheter related bloodstream infection.Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified body mass index(HR=1.11,95%CI:1.01～1.22,P=0.028)and catheter type(double-lumen)(HR=1.45,95%CI:1.15～1.83,P=0.012)as independent risk factors for PICC catheter related bloodstream infection.The ROC area under curve for the PICC catheter related bloodstream infection risk prediction model was 0.96,with a sensitivity of 93.0%and specificity of 92.0%.K-fold cross-validation yielded a mean area under curve of 0.960,sensitivity of 92.0%,and specificity of 89.1%.Conclusion BMI and the use of double-lumen catheters are independent risk factors for PICC catheter related bloodstream infection in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.The developed PICC catheter related bloodstream infection risk predic-tion model exhibits high predictive accuracy and stability.This model can assist nursing in identifying patients at high risk for PICC catheter related bloodstream infection.关键词
化学治疗/导管相关血流感染/风险预测模型Key words
chemotherapy/catheter related bloodstream infection/risk prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
梁妙丽,陈霞,金丽红..肿瘤化学治疗患者PICC导管相关血流感染风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].护理与康复,2025,24(8):14-19,6.基金项目
浙江省卫生健康科技计划(临床研究应用项目),编号2022KY1441 （临床研究应用项目）
