煤矿安全2025，Vol.56Issue(8)：59-68,10.DOI:10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.20250685
煤自燃氧化过程气体温度非线性特征及预测研究
Nonlinear characteristics and prediction of gas and temperature in coal spontaneous combustion oxidation process
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the gas and temperature variation laws during coal spontaneous combustion oxidation and achieve accurate prediction of high-temperature points in coal spontaneous combustion,coal samples from Dafosi Coal Mine were collected for exper-imental research on coal spontaneous combustion.The characteristic indicators during coal oxidation were analyzed,including high-temperature point migration,gas volume fraction changes,oxygen consumption rate,and gas production rate.A random forest(RF)model for nonlinear prediction of coal temperature was established and validated using on-site monitoring data.The results showed that coal temperature rise exhibits staged variation characteristics and oxygen-deficient oxidation properties,with continuous temper-ature increases observed even when oxygen volume fraction remains between 4%and 5%,and rapid oxidation reactions still oc-curred under stable airflow conditions.Both oxygen consumption rate and gas production rates generally follow exponential growth trends,showing slow increases before reaching critical temperature and rapid acceleration after exceeding the dry cracking temperat-ure.During coal oxidation heating,high-temperature points within the furnace demonstrate dynamic migration towards the air inlet,gradually shifting from the initial 45 cm position at the beginning of the experiment to the 5 cm position near the air inlet.The RF model demonstrated significantly superior predictive performance compared to support vector regression(SVR)and multiple linear regression(MLR)models under equivalent conditions,with prediction results showing mean absolute rercentage error(MAPE)<2.39%and coefficient of determination(R2)>0.99,while SVR and MLR models exhibited MAPE values exceeding 5%.Notably,the MLR model performed the worst,with a MAPE of 9.53%during the testing stage,highlighting the inadequacy of linear models in capturing the nonlinear relationships between gas products and temperature in coal spontaneous combustion.Further validation us-ing on-site monitoring data confirmed the superior performance of RF model,achieving MAPE of merely 1.796%during testing stage,compared to 3.825%and 5.169%for SVR and MLR models,respectively.关键词
煤自燃/氧化过程/标志气体/非线性特征/随机森林Key words
coal spontaneous combustion/oxidation process/indicator gas/nonlinear characteristic/random forest分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
詹平,雷昌奎,程仁辉..煤自燃氧化过程气体温度非线性特征及预测研究[J].煤矿安全,2025,56(8):59-68,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52204229) （52204229）
