人民长江2025，Vol.56Issue(7)：66-75,10.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2025.07.009
基于Budyko方程的丹江口入库径流变化归因分析
Attribution analysis of inflow runoff variation in Danjiangkou Reservoir based on Budyko equation
摘要
Abstract
Conducting analyses of runoff evolution and its driving forces under changing environment is crucial for effective wa-ter resources planning and management.This study focuses on the upstream catchment of the Danjiangkou Reservoir,utilizing a comprehensive dataset of inflow runoff,precipitation,and potential evapotranspiration from 1933 to 2023.Based on Budyko equa-tion,the driving forces of climatic factors and human activities on runoff variations were quantitatively analyzed by the elasticity coefficient method and the decomposition method,and the results of two methods were comparatively evaluated by the ABCD hydrological model.The findings revealed that:①from 1933 to 2023,average annual rainfall increased while annual inflow runoff decreased,though neither trend was statistically significant.In contrast,annual potential evapotranspiration exhibited a significant increasing trend after 2000.②The time series of annual inflow runoff,precipitation,and potential evapotranspiration revealed sig-nificant periodic changes with cycles of 9.3,9.3 a,and 2.3 a,respectively.③A notable change in annual inflow runoff occurred in 1985,after which the sensitivity of runoff to rainfall,potential evapotranspiration,and underlying surface characteristic parame-ters increased.④ The attribution analysis results obtained from the decomposition method closely aligned with those from the hydrological model.Based on the results by the decomposition method and hydrological model,the contributions of climate factors and human activities to the reduction of runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir basin were found to be 66.84%and 33.16%,re-spectively.This study highlights the dual impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction and provides valuable insights for the rational allocation of water resources in the upper Hanjiang River Basin,as well as for the sustainable operation of middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.关键词
径流变化/归因分析/Budyko方程/水文模型/丹江口水库Key words
runoff variation/attribution analysis/Budyko equation/hydrological model/Danjiangkou Reservoir分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
汪肖雅,郭生练,王俊,时毅军,董付强,杨海从..基于Budyko方程的丹江口入库径流变化归因分析[J].人民长江,2025,56(7):66-75,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目(U2340205) （U2340205）
汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司科研项目(HJJS2024009) （集团）
