人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(7)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.07.001
基于机器学习的珠江河口咸潮预测分析
Prediction and Analysis of Saltwater Intrusion in Pearl River Estuary Based on Machine Learning
摘要
Abstract
The acceleration of urbanization has induced a sharp increase in urban water consumption,so the saltwater intrusion has stronger influences on domestic,industrial,and agricultural water use in estuarine areas.To enhance the water supply security of coastal cities,it is necessary to analyze and predict saltwater intrusion.This study aims to further investigate the influence of various factors,including estuary tide level,wind direction and speed,and upstream water flow,on the saltwater intrusion(chlorinity in the estuary)in the Pearl River estuary,providing scientific support for improving water supply security in coastal cities.The study determines the lag time of different influencing factors on saltwater intrusion through correlation coefficients and constructs prediction models for the chloride content at the estuaries of the Guangchang and Pinggang water pumping stations based on various machine learning methods to analyze the saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River estuary.The established models show a good performance in predicting salinity.According to the analysis of the importance of influencing factors,it is found that upstream water flow has the greatest influence on saltwater intrusion,followed by estuary tide level and wind direction and speed.关键词
咸潮入侵/机器学习/珠江河口Key words
saltwater intrusion/machine learning/Pearl River estuary分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
杜博恒,张靖文,康政,陈奕帆,黄汉良,林凯荣,肖名忠..基于机器学习的珠江河口咸潮预测分析[J].人民珠江,2025,46(7):1-10,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52309014、52479034) （52309014、52479034）
中央高校基本科研业务费(23hytd011) （23hytd011）
广东省水利科技创新项目(2024-04) （2024-04）
广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2024A1515010968) （2024A1515010968）
