水资源保护2025，Vol.41Issue(4)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2025.04.001
气候变化和人类活动对长江流域极端径流的影响
Impacts of climate change and human activities on extreme runoff in the Yangtze River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The PCR-GLOBWB model was employed to simulate monthly runoff processes in the Yangtze River Basin under natural conditions and human-influenced scenarios.The Mann-Kendall mutation test was applied to delineate the baseline period and the impacted period.Based on standardized runoff index and generalized extreme value distribution,the range of extreme high flow and extreme low flow changes under two scenarios with different recurrence periods was calculated,and quantitatively evaluated the contribution of climate change and human activities to the evolution of extreme runoff in the Yangtze River Basin.The results indicate that climate change is the main contributing factor to the extreme high and low flow changes in the Yangtze River Basin.Climate change has intensified the severity of extreme high flow and l extreme low flow in the central part of the upper reaches and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The regional differences in the impact of human activities on extreme high flow and l extreme low flow are significant,alleviating the severity of extreme high currents in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and Sichuan Basin,but exacerbating the severity of extreme low flow in the middle and lower reaches.关键词
极端径流/PCR-GLOBWB模型/气候变化/人类活动/长江流域Key words
extreme runoff/PCR-GLOBWB model/climate change/human activities/the Yangtze River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨肖丽,张佳乐,黄星怡,曹段冉,吴凡..气候变化和人类活动对长江流域极端径流的影响[J].水资源保护,2025,41(4):1-9,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203) （U2243203）
