地质通报2025，Vol.44Issue(7)：1272-1284,13.DOI:10.12097/gbc.2024.10.049
基于InVEST-PLUS模型的首都西部生态涵养区碳储量时空演替及预测
Spatio-temporal succession and prediction of carbon storage in ecological conservation area of western Beijing based on InVEST-PLUS model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]By studying the spatial and temporal succession pattern and development trend of ecosystem carbon storage driven by land use change in the ecological conservation area in the west of Beijing from 1990 to 2020,this study found out the distribution of regional carbon storage and its influencing factors,and combined with the strategic demand of"dual carbon"in Beijing,proposed ways to improve the carbon sink capacity of regional ecosystem.It provides reference for ecological conservation area to support the realization of carbon neutrality goal of the capital.[Methods]Seven periods of remote sensing data from 1990,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 were selected to evaluate the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage in the study area using InVEST model.Based on the historical land use change,the PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the changes of land use and carbon storage potential under different scenarios in 2030.[Results]①From 1990 to 2020,the carbon storage in the study area showed a fluctuating downward trend,with a cumulative decrease of 5.3×106 t.The change of land use type,especially the change of cultivated land to construction land,is the main reason for the change of carbon storage in the study area in the past 30 years.②The spatial variation of ecosystem carbon storage in the western part of Beijing was mainly affected by elevation and vegetation coverage.In addition,climate factors such as annual precipitation and average annual temperature also affect the spatial distribution of carbon stocks to varying degrees.It is found that the synergistic effect of each driving factor is generally stronger than that of single factor,especially the synergistic effect of elevation and vegetation coverage on the spatial differentiation of carbon stocks is the most significant.③In the simulation of natural development scenario,cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2030,carbon storage reached 106.02×106 t,105.82×106 t and 106.08×106 t,respectively,all higher than that in 2020.In the long run,ecological protection scenarios can not only effectively increase carbon stocks,but also bring benefits of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service enhancement.[Conclusions]In order to improve the carbon sink capacity of the ecological conservation area in the west of the capital,improve the ecological compensation policy,increase the protection investment,and continue to carry out the construction of landscape engineering and small watershed comprehensive management.Combined with the control of land use,it is necessary to strictly curb the disorderly expansion of construction land and optimize and adjust the"three life"space.关键词
生态涵养区/InVEST模型/PLUS模型/碳储量/影响因素/北京Key words
ecological conservation area/InVEST model/PLUS model/carbon storage/influence factor/Beijing分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
万路通,刘小丹,郭汉清,薛万来,刘可暄,李垒,汪丽丽..基于InVEST-PLUS模型的首都西部生态涵养区碳储量时空演替及预测[J].地质通报,2025,44(7):1272-1284,13.基金项目
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(编号:2018ZX07101005-03)、北京市科技计划课题《密云水库水生态安全优化调控技术体系研究与示范》(编号:Z221100005222013)、2024年北京水务科技开放项目(编号:SK-2024-001-STS) National Major Science and Technology Project on Water Pollution Control and Treatment(No.2018ZX07101005-03),Beijing Science and Technology Project"Research and Demonstration on the Optimization and Regulation Technology System for Water Ecological Security of Miyun Reservoir"(No.Z221100005222013)and 2024 Beijing Water Affairs Science and Technology Open Project(No.SK-2024-001-STS) （编号:2018ZX07101005-03）
