浙江电力2025，Vol.44Issue(7)：1-12,12.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202507001
考虑极端非预期时序场景的电力系统日前优化调度
An optimal day-ahead scheduling method for power systems considering extreme,unanticipated and dynamic-temporal scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Existing optimal scheduling methods cannot cover all unanticipated scenarios.To overcome this limita-tion,this paper proposes an optimal day-ahead scheduling method that considers extreme,unanticipated and dynamic-temporal scenarios.An optimal scheduling model incorporating both a scheduling plan and a contingency plan is developed.First,the dynamic-temporal scenarios that account for spatiotemporal correlation is divided into a normal scenario set and an extreme scenario set using confidence intervals.The dynamic-temporal scenario set is classified according to the correlation coefficients of source-load forecast errors,and the high-risk scenarios within each category are identified based on source-load deviations and reserve risks of power system.Next,the total sys-tem reserves,including both positive and negative reserves,across different time periods are maximized to derive an optimal day-ahead scheduling plan for typical normal scenarios.Furthermore,the typical extreme scenarios are optimized to generate a contingency plan,with adjustments to the scheduling plan applied to resolve cases where some extreme scenarios have no feasible solution.An application case in an actual power grid demonstrates that the proposed method not only preserves the robustness and economic efficiency of scheduling decisions but also fully ex-ploits the peak shaving and valley filling potential of flexible loads under extreme scenarios.关键词
源荷不确定性/时空相关性/时序场景/最优调度计划/调度预案Key words
source-load uncertainty/spatiotemporal correlation/dynamic-temporal scenario/optimal scheduling plan/contingency plan引用本文复制引用
孙俊杰,胡姝博,袁鹏,张庭齐,贾祺,刘宛菘..考虑极端非预期时序场景的电力系统日前优化调度[J].浙江电力,2025,44(7):1-12,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(U23B20118) （U23B20118）
