浙江电力2025，Vol.44Issue(7)：55-63,9.DOI:10.19585/j.zjdl.202507006
考虑功率-误差相关性的风电功率概率预测模型
A probabilistic wind power forecasting model considering power error correlation
摘要
Abstract
New energy sources,such as wind power,are characterized by volatility and intermittency,leading to significant uncertainty in wind power output and errors in power forecasting.To accurately capture the differentiated distribution of power forecasting errors,a copula-based probabilistic wind power forecasting model considering power error correlation is proposed.First,a wind power point forecasting model is developed using prompt learning to predict the trends in wind power.Subsequently,a copula is employed to analyze the correlation between wind power forecasting and forecasting errors,enabling the establishment of probability density functions for forecasting errors corresponding to each forecasting value.This method determines the range of potential fluctuations in wind power forecasting within a given confidence level.Finally,the proposed probabilistic wind power forecasting model is validated,demonstrating its effectiveness.关键词
风电功率/提示学习/相关性/Copula函数/功率概率预测Key words
wind power/prompt learning/correlation/copula/probabilistic power forecasting引用本文复制引用
陈文进,王小仲,张思,甘雯,沈诚亮,顾伟康,邱剑..考虑功率-误差相关性的风电功率概率预测模型[J].浙江电力,2025,44(7):55-63,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金联合基金(U22B2098) （U22B2098）
国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(B311UZ23000B) （B311UZ23000B）
