防灾减灾工程学报2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：726-735,10.DOI:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20240320001
阈值法在沿海混合风气候极值风速预测中的对比与应用
Comparison and Application of Threshold Methods for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation in Coastal Mixed Wind Climates
摘要
Abstract
Under extreme wind conditions such as typhoons,the observed wind speed data are often in-sufficient and unevenly distributed,making it difficult to apply the traditional stage-wise extreme value method based on extreme value distribution probability functions to estimate extreme wind speed with a return period.This study systematically reviewed two commonly used threshold methods for estimat-ing extreme wind speeds with small samples—peak over threshold(POT)and method of independent storm(MIS).Combining the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation theory,pseudo wind speed samples following six common wind speed probability distributions were randomly generated,enabling prior acquisition of theoretical extreme wind speeds with specific return periods.Based on this,the sensitivi-ty of the POT and MIS methods to threshold selection and their differences in estimating extreme wind speeds with return periods were compared.The wind speed probability distributions under three climates—mixed climate(without differentiation between normal wind and typhoon data),normal cli-mate,and typhoon climate—were compared using the daily maximum wind speeds and hourly wind speeds with a 10-minute interval under typhoon conditions from 1971 to 2007 at the Chongming mete-orological station,China.Additionally,extreme wind speeds with different return periods were esti-mated under different climates using the stage-wise extreme value method and two threshold methods.Based on the comparison of estimation differences among these methods,the accuracy and applicabili-ty of different methods were clarified.This study provides a reference for estimating extreme wind speeds with return periods based on observed data under typhoon climate.关键词
台风/良态风/越界峰值法/独立风暴法/重现期/极值风速Key words
typhoon/normal wind/peak over threshold method/method of independent storm/return period/extreme wind speed分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
朱超,赵林,方根深,代希华,鲜荣..阈值法在沿海混合风气候极值风速预测中的对比与应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2025,45(4):726-735,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52108469,52078383)资助 （52108469,52078383）
