防灾减灾工程学报2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：736-744,9.DOI:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20241220001
考虑物理-社会-环境属性的极端降水风险研究
Research on Extreme Precipitation Risk Considering Physical-social-environmental Attributes
摘要
Abstract
This study aims to conduct a grid-scale extreme precipitation risk assessment in Xuanwu District,Nanjing,so as to fill the gaps in existing indicator systems and improve the precision of risk characterization.By integrating physical,social,and environmental indicators,a risk assessment framework was constructed to comprehensively represent the characteristics of extreme precipitation risk.This study applied the entropy weight method to calculate indicator weights,combined with Arc-GIS technology and the K-means clustering algorithm,to analyze the spatial distribution characteris-tics of risk under a 100-year extreme precipitation scenario and to identify key influencing indicators across different risk levels.The results showed that extreme precipitation risk levels in Xuanwu Dis-trict exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity,with an overall distribution pattern of low risk in the central area and high risk in the surrounding areas.The influence mechanisms of key indicators showed tiered response characteristics:the low-risk areas were mainly controlled by the submerged areas of ur-ban and rural,industrial and mining,and residential lands,water body area,soil erosion level,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).The medium-risk areas were influenced by the sub-merged areas of urban and rural,industrial and mining,residential lands,the submerged areas of for-est land,emergency service response time to disaster-affected areas,soil erosion level,and NDVI.The high-risk areas were jointly dominated by the submerged areas of urban and rural,industrial and mining,residential lands,the submerged areas of forest land,and NDVI.The extremely high-risk ar-eas were driven by three factors—the submerged areas of forest land,emergency service response time to disaster-affected areas,and the proportion of the largest patch to the landscape area.This study improves the indicator system for extreme precipitation risk assessment and clarifies the tiered re-sponse patterns of risk-driving indicators,providing a scientific basis for developing differentiated flood control strategies in Xuanwu District while offering important theoretical support for improving regional flood disaster resilience.关键词
极端降水/栅格尺度/风险/熵权法/关键指标识别Key words
extreme precipitation/grid scale/risk/entropy weight method/key indicator identification分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张健磊,褚宸坤,王鹏..考虑物理-社会-环境属性的极端降水风险研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2025,45(4):736-744,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51908249)、国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205703)资助 （51908249）
