北京大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(4)：719-732,14.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.040
基于MODIS数据探讨自然因子和人为因子对贵州省地表反照率演变的贡献
Assessing the Contribution of Natural Factors and Human Factors to Land Surface Albedo Changes in Guizhou Province Using MODIS Data
摘要
Abstract
In order to quantify the relative contribution of natural factors and human factors to the surface albedo in Guizhou Province and their impacts on its changes,we analyzed the past and future evolution trends of surface albedo based on the MCD43A3 dataset from 2001 to 2022,using the Theil-Sen slope algorithm,Mann-Kendall significance verification and Hurst index method.On this basis,by combining datasets of natural factors and human factors and utilizing partial correlation analysis,residual analysis and ridge regression analysis,the factors influencing changes in land surface albedo were quantified and classified,leading to the following results.1)From a temporal perspective,the surface albedo showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2001 to 2022,with an average decline rate of 3.699×10-5 yr-1,and a maximum decline rate of 0.0045 yr-1 from 2001 to 2003.From the spatial perspective,the surface albedo decreased in the northeast and increased in the northwest,and the area of 60.16%of the study area showed a downward trend,and the surface albedo will continue to decline in the future.2)In response to natural factors,the surface albedo was positively correlated with temperature and leaf area index(LAI),negatively correlated with rainfall and soil moisture.Spatially,LAI was the dominant factor affecting its differentiation;temporally soil moisture.3)The changes in natural factors and human activities have dual effects on the change of surface albedo,mainly inhibitory,with 60.17%of the study area being co-driven by both.The relative contribution rates are ranked as follows:soil moisture(35.23%)>LAI(23.96%)>land use(18.65%)>temperature(12.03%)>precipitation(10.13%).关键词
地表反照率/自然变化/人类活动/残差分析/岭回归分析Key words
land surface albedo/natural variation/human activities/residual analysis/ridge regression analysis引用本文复制引用
陈淋淋,刘绥华,邓玲玲,申选英,宋善海,龙洋洋..基于MODIS数据探讨自然因子和人为因子对贵州省地表反照率演变的贡献[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(4):719-732,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42161029)和贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般278)资助 （42161029）
