摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of soil erosion control,growth and decline,and soil and water conservation planning,an analysis was made on the quantitative relationship between soil erosion control and its growth and decline.Taking the soil and water conservation rate as the independent variable and the efficiency of soil erosion control as the depen-dent variable,the empirical model formula was obtained by fitting through regression analysis.According to the em-pirical model formula,the soil and water conservation rate,and the planned control area of this year,the soil erosion area and soil and water conservation rate of the next year were predicted.After iterative calculation by county year by year and summary,the future soil and water conservation rate of Guangxi is predicted.The results demonstrate the soil and water conservation rate shows a significant inverse correlation with the soil and water conservation control ef-ficiency,the control efficiency decreases with the increase of soil and water conservation rate.Based on the planned average annual control area of 1,720 km2 in Guangxi,it is predicted that the soil and water conservation rates in 2035 and 2050 will reach 86.54%and 88.87%respectively.Based on the actual average annual control area of 1,954 km2 in Guangxi in recent 6 years,it is predicted that the soil and water conservation rates in 2035 and 2050 will reach 86.79%and 89.40%respectively.It is predicted the soil and water conservation rate targets of 87.02%by 2035 and 90.11%by 2050 are unable to be achieved,so it is necessary to increase the efforts and scale of soil erosion control.关键词
水土流失治理/水土流失消长/水土保持率/广西/预测Key words
soil erosion control/growth and decline of soil erosion/soil and water conservation rate/Guangxi/prediction分类
农业科技
