甘蔗糖业2025，Vol.54Issue(4)：29-36,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2025.04.004
6～8月降水量对广西来宾市兴宾区甘蔗茎伸长的影响评估
Assessment of the Impact of June-August Precipitation on Elongation of Sugarcane Stem in Xingbin Distract,Laibin City,Guangxi
摘要
Abstract
To scientifically and accurately assess the impact of precipitation during June and August on sugarcane stem elongation(the critical growth stage),predict plant height,and improve prediction accuracy of sugarcan yield forecasts,this study analyzed fixed-point seedling survey data from Xingbin Distract,Laibin City,Guangxi,from 2009 to 2022,along with the corresponding monthly precipitation anomaly percentages data from meteorological stations in the same region during June-August period for impact analysis.A typical consecutive summer-autumn drought event of 2022 was used as a case validation.Results show that when the precipitation anomaly for two consecutive months or more from June to August is≤-40％,the cumulative plant elongation of ratoon and newly planted sugarcane during June to August can decrease by more than 20％and 25％,respectively.When the monthly precipitation anomaly percentage of a certain month during June and August is≤-40％causes reductions of 6％～8％.Notably,significantly low precipitation from June to August has a more substantial negative effect on plant cane than on ratoon cane.This study is the first time to establish a quantitative drought-stem elongation threshold applicable to sugarcane-growing areas of central Guangxi.This threshold can be extended to other regions with similar climatic conditions,such as central and northern Guangxi,providing a scientific basis for regional drought monitoring,yield-loss assessment,and irrigation scheduling for sugarcane.Owing to limitations in station density,indicator simplicity,and data record length,future work should incorporate satellite-derived soil-moisture data and longer datasets for further validation and refinement.The findings offer decision-making guidance and support sugar security in China for sugar enterprises.关键词
降水量/甘蔗/茎伸长/株高/气象影响评估Key words
Precipitation/Sugarcane/Stem elongation/Plant height/Meteorological impact assessment分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
匡昭敏,欧钊荣,陆思宇,欧阳静,李莉,张叶..6～8月降水量对广西来宾市兴宾区甘蔗茎伸长的影响评估[J].甘蔗糖业,2025,54(4):29-36,8.基金项目
中国气象局科技项目"揭榜挂帅""基于天空地一体化融合数据的精细化甘蔗农情灾情评估预警和产量预报技术与数算一体化平台研发"(CMAJBGS202322) （CMAJBGS202322）
广西科技重大专项"高效低损甘蔗机械化收获关键技术集成应用与示范"(桂科AA22117007) （桂科AA22117007）
