甘蔗糖业2025，Vol.54Issue(4)：37-46,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2025.04.005
广西甘蔗生产对气候变化的脆弱性分析
Analysis of the Vulnerability of Sugarcane Production to Climate Change in Guangxi
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change,this study aims to scientifically and systematically assess the current status and future trends of the vulnerability of sugarcane production in the core sugarcane-growing areas of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region to climate change,in response to the potential impacts of climate change on sugarcane yield and quality.Integrating multi-source data including meteorology,spatial distribution of cultivation,production statistics,disaster situations,and socioeconomics,the study employs correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to construct a comprehensive evaluation model that incorporates factors such as climate risk,sensitivity of the exposed elements(disaster-bearing body sensitivity),and disaster resistance capacity.The results indicate that,as of 2023,sugarcane production in Guangxi generally exhibits a low level of vulnerability to climate change,with most regions being categorized as less vulnerable or least vulnerable.It is projected that by 2030,although the overall vulnerability of sugarcane production in the region will remain low,there will be an increase in vulnerability in the southeastern and southern coastal areas of Guangxi,while the northwestern region is expected to see a decrease.A comparison of the differences in vulnerability between the future and the present reveals that the vulnerability of sugarcane production in Guangxi to climate change will exhibit a complex pattern of increase,decrease,or stability across different regions,reflecting the intricate interplay between future climate change and regional adaptive capacity.Based on the evaluation results,it is recommended to enhance meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning systems,optimize the layout of sugarcane cultivation,promote drought-and cold-resistant varieties,and improve agricultural infrastructure.These measures are aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change on sugarcane production in Guangxi,providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation management in Guangxi's sugarcane industry,and offering a reference for vulnerability assessments of climate change in other regions.关键词
甘蔗/气候变化/气象灾害/脆弱性分析/区域划分Key words
Sugarcane/Climate change/Meteorological disaster/Vulnerability analysis/Regional division分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李莉,匡昭敏,欧钊荣,马瑞升,陈冬宇..广西甘蔗生产对气候变化的脆弱性分析[J].甘蔗糖业,2025,54(4):37-46,10.基金项目
中国气象局科技项目"揭榜挂帅""基于天空地一体化融合数据的精细化甘蔗农情灾情评估预警和产量预报技术与数算一体化平台研发"(CMAJBGS202322) （CMAJBGS202322）
广西科技重大专项"高效低损甘蔗机械化收获关键技术集成应用与示范"(桂科AA22117007) （桂科AA22117007）
