沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(4)：180-187,8.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2501.13019
陕北山地苹果种植气候潜在适宜区及灾害风险的定量评估——以米脂县为例
Quantitative Assessment of Suitability and Disaster Risks for Mountainous Apple Cultivation in Northern Shaanxi:A Case Study of Mizhi County
摘要
Abstract
Using meteorological observation,digital elevation model,and land confirmation rights data,the changing trends of heat and water resources in Mizhi County from 1971 to 2023 were analyzed using methods such as the climate tendency rate and the Mann-Kendall(M-K)test.By integrating climatic conditions,site characteristics,and available agricultural land resources,this study conducts a quantitative analysis and assessment of the climatic potential suitable regions for apple cultivation in Mizhi County,evaluates their cultivation development potential,and identifies the spatial distribution of areas sensitive to major meteorological disasters.The results indicate that:(1)Over the past 53 years,Mizhi County has exhibited a warming and moistening trend,improving the hydrothermal conditions for apple growth.(2)The potential climate suitability regions are primarily located on sun-facing gentle slopes in hilly-gully areas at elevations between 870 and 1 240 meters,covering approximately 200.64 km²(53.2%of the available agricultural land).(3)The climate risk assessment reveals that 46.753 km² are at moderate risk,and 153.887 km² are at high risk of drought during the sprouting to young fruit stages;117.522 km² are at low risk,and 83.118 km² are at moderate risk of frost damage during the flowering stage.关键词
苹果/气候/潜在适宜区/风险/评估Key words
apple/climate/potential suitable areas/risks/assessment分类
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梁轶,张勇,张维敏,屈振江,柏秦凤,戴喜红..陕北山地苹果种植气候潜在适宜区及灾害风险的定量评估——以米脂县为例[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(4):180-187,8.基金项目
中国气象局气候变化专项(QBZ202413) （QBZ202413）
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2024JC-YBMS-220) （2024JC-YBMS-220）
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室开放研究项目(CAMF-202317) （CAMF-202317）
