中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：62-74,13.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250606
华北平原区占用耕地绿化造林时空分布及复耕潜力评价
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF GREENING AND AFFORESTATION OF OCCUPIED ARABLE LAND AND EVALUATION OF REPLANTING POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN AREA
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the phenomenon of occupying arable land for greening and afforestation has been repeatedly prohibited,and the"non-farming"and"non-food"of arable land has been increasing,posing a serious threat to the protection of arable land and food security.It is of great significance to scientifically monitor and identify the phenomenon of occupying arable land for afforestation,especially in the plains area,to establish an evaluation system of arable land restoration potential in the plains area,to make up for the gaps in the current research,and to promote the restoration of arable land in areas where the occupying of arable land is over-standardised,so as to enhance the efficiency of land use and food production capacity,to improve the current situation of the resources and environment,and to promote the development of the rural economy.This study systematically analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution,driving factors and restoration potential of occupied arable land greening and afforestation in the North China Plain area during 1980-2020 based on the land use transfer matrix,grain loss production capacity accounting,geo-detector,and geographically-weighted regression model(GWR).The results showed that:(1)The area of occupied cropland afforestation in the North China Plain area during the 40-year period was 203 324 400 hm2,and the loss of food production capacity due to the occupation of cropland afforestation was 2 386 100 tons,which could satisfy the food demand of 17 442 300 people for one year.(2)The afforestation of occupied arable land in the North China Plain was mainly affected by natural conditions,socio-economic and locational factors.There were differences in the spatial effects of the same influencing factors.Among them,local financial budget expenditure,distance from major rivers and distance from built-up areas had the most significant influence on the phenomenon of occupying arable land for greening and afforestation.(3)On the basis of defining the reasonable area for greening and afforestation and the potential area for replanting,the replanting potential of the North China Plain area was divided into four grades of high potential,high potential,medium potential and low potential using the comprehensive evaluation method,and the area of each grade accounted for 35.16%,34.67%,26.67%,and 3.5%of the area of the potential area for replanting,respectively.(4)In terms of county scale,there were 286 county-level administrative districts in the 692 county-level administrative districts in the seven provinces(municipalities)spanning the North China Plain that had potential for replanting,including 55 first-level potential districts,97 second-level potential districts,110 third-level potential districts,and 24 fourth-level potential districts.The results of the study reflect the restoration potential of greening and afforestation arable land in the North China Plain,which can provide guidance for the protection of arable land in China.关键词
耕地保护/绿化造林/时空分布/复耕潜力/华北平原区Key words
cropland protection/greening and afforestation/spatial and temporal distribution/replanting poten-tial/North China Plain area分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
岳怡欣,周振举,颜佳鑫,尹宇清,袁承程,刘黎明..华北平原区占用耕地绿化造林时空分布及复耕潜力评价[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(6):62-74,13.基金项目
国家自然科学青年基金项目"农户生计转型对农业土地利用系统过程变化及其效应模拟研究——以洞庭湖区的沾溪流域为例"(42001224) （42001224）
