中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：100-111,12.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250609
基于EcoCrop模型的南方典型作物种植空间适宜性动态模拟和评价研究
DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND EVALUATION OF SPATIAL SUITABILITY FOR TYPICAL CROPS IN SOUTHERN CHINA USING THE ECOCROP MODEL
摘要
Abstract
Understanding crop spatial distribution patterns holds significant scientific value for optimizing arable land utilization under food security imperatives.However,current research inadequately addresses dynamic suitability simulation and multi-crop adaptability evaluation in multi-cropping systems.In this study,using the EcoCrop model,we developed a localized parameter adjustment framework for rice,spring maize,sesame,winter rapeseed,and Chinese milk vetch(Astragalus sinicus).The maxSSS(Maximizing the sum of Sensitivity and Specificity)method was employed to determine crop-specific feasibility thresholds(below which cultivation is deemed unsuitable).This enabled dynamic simulation of potential growing period windows(start month of growing periods)and spatial suitability patterns for typical crops in the Poyang Lake Plain.Our study results were showed as follows.(1)The localized parameter adjustment method demonstrated robust performance,with only 1%～14%of study areas showing simulated result variations post-adjustment.Spatial simulations exhibited strong consistency with actual crop distribution data.(2)There were differences in the specific feasibility thresholds for planting suitability among different crops.Feasibility thresholds were quantified as 0.93(rice),0.98(sesame),0.47(spring maize),0.45(winter rapeseed),and 0.55(Chinese milk vetch).(3)All crops displayed diverse growing period windows,with distinct spatial distribution patterns across different windows.So,this study advances multi-crop suitability simulation under variable growing windows,offering a novel framework for crop adaptation modeling.And the findings can provide technical support for cropping system design,agricultural structure optimization,and enhance food security governance.关键词
EcoCrop模型/作物适宜性/maxSSS/鄱阳湖平原Key words
EcoCrop model/crop suitability/maxSSS/Poyang Lake Plain分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
申格,刘航,余强毅,吴文斌..基于EcoCrop模型的南方典型作物种植空间适宜性动态模拟和评价研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(6):100-111,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"基于作物适宜性的南方冬闲田集约化利用机制及优化研究"(42401331) （42401331）
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题"浙江省冬闲田分布现状、变化机制与复耕路径研究"(24NDQN053YB) （24NDQN053YB）
浙江省教育厅科研项目"浙江省作物轮作系统遥感监测及优化重构"(Y202352245) （Y202352245）
全国统计科学研究项目"数量与质量协同的作物轮作系统空间配置研究:遥感监测、效应测度与优化重构"(2024LY051) （2024LY051）
