电力建设2025，Vol.46Issue(9)：1-12,12.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2025.09.001
新型电力系统电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法研究
A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The use of deterministic methods to construct power and energy balance tables is unsuitable because of the strong randomness and frequent occurrence of extreme events caused by a high proportion of new energy grid connections.[Methods]Based on a widely recognized balance table form,this study constructed probabilistic scenarios and designed a practical method for the probabilistic analysis of power and energy balance.Specifically,a probabilistic analysis framework for power and energy balance was established,and methods for constructing typical,edge,and extreme scenarios were proposed.The overall framework of the probabilistic power and energy balance table was designed,and a balancing risk assessment based on indicators of the balance margin and a new energy consumption index was conducted.For key periods with severe balance risks,an index system for power and energy balance analysis was designed,and a refined balance state evaluation was performed using a time-series production simulation.[Results]The results of the probabilistic power and energy balance table of the improved ROTS test system showed that it is in a tight balance state throughout the year.In a typical scenario with a probability of 91.36%in November,the power and energy balance could be maintained.In the tightest supply scenario in November,the energy balance margin was 97%,and the maximum power shortage was 2.66 GW,which are close to the results of the time-series production simulation.[Conclusions]The test system examples suggest that the proposed method can adapt well to a high proportion of new energy grid-connected scenarios and adopt different dimensions of analysis based on balancing risks,which can satisfy the requirements of engineering applications.关键词
电力电量平衡/概率性评估/多场景构建/时序生产模拟/平衡风险Key words
power and energy balance/probabilistic analysis/multi-scenarios construction/time-series production simulation/balancing risk分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李宛洳,郭瑾程,王建学,王秀丽,杨钤,马骞..新型电力系统电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法研究[J].电力建设,2025,46(9):1-12,12.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China"Key Technologies on Intelligent Dispatch of Power Grid under 20％New Energy Integration Scenario"(No.2022YFB2403500).国家重点研发计划资助项目"支撑20％新能源电量占比场景下的电网智能调度关键技术"(2022YFB2403500) （No.2022YFB2403500）
