电力建设2025，Vol.46Issue(9)：42-56,15.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2025.09.004
冰灾天气下电网"源-网-荷"耦合特性与薄弱性分析
Analysis for Coupling Characteristic and Weakness of"Source-Network-Load"Under Ice Storms
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Under extreme ice-disaster conditions,the power-generation capacity of wind and solar energy declines significant while the probability of power-equipment failure increases significantly,thus resulting in severe supply-demand imbalances that persist for many days.To analyze the complex interdependent relationships among source grid-load components in high-penetration renewable-energy systems during ice storms and identify vulnerable nodes susceptible to failure propagation,this study investigates the temporal-spatial distribution patterns,correlations,and stochastic characteristics of source grid-load systems under ice-disaster conditions.This study reveals the probabilistic features of both the power supply and demand sides,based on which a probabilistic model for source grid-load systems that incorporates key ice-disaster impact factors is established.[Methods]Based on nonlinear dynamic system theory,we propose three novel indicators,i.e.,passive/active voltage-fluctuation indices for grid nodes,a composite-network fluctuation index,and a node-voltage violation index.A dynamic impedance matrix and source-load frequency coupling coefficient are introduced to develop an analytical framework for assessing the source grid-load coupling characteristics and vulnerability under ice-disaster scenarios.This methodology enables a systematic investigation of the synergistic evolution mechanisms and variation patterns within source grid-load systems during ice events.[Results]Case studies using a modified IEEE 39-node system and a regional grid show that system-wide passive/active fluctuation indices increase progressively as nodal interdependencies improve.The amplified coupling effects from renewable-energy fluctuations during ice storms substantially degrade grid resilience.[Conclusions]The proposed approach effectively reveals the dynamic evolution patterns of source grid-load coupling characteristics and identifies critical vulnerable nodes,thus providing an effective tool for comprehensively investigating the operational characteristics and optimal dispatch strategies for power systems under ice-disaster conditions.关键词
电力系统/冰灾/动态阻抗/电气耦合Key words
power system/ice disaster/dynamic impedance/electrical coupling分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
谢一工,吴琛,黄骞谦,方斯顿..冰灾天气下电网"源-网-荷"耦合特性与薄弱性分析[J].电力建设,2025,46(9):42-56,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52377075) （52377075）
中国南方电网有限责任公司总部管理科技项目(0500002023030301GH00107)This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52377075)and the Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited(No.0500002023030301GH00107). （0500002023030301GH00107）
