煤矿安全2025，Vol.56Issue(9)：61-70,10.DOI:10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.20250683
基于CNN-KAN混合模型的露天矿多源信息融合滑坡预测研究
Landslide prediction in open-pit mines based on a CNN-KAN hybrid model with multi-source information fusion
摘要
Abstract
Rainfall is a key trigger for landslide disasters in open-pit mines,and its gradual deformation characteristics exhibit a sig-nificant coupling relationship with seasonal rainfall processes.To address the deficiencies of traditional methods in analyzing the rainfall-displacement correlation mechanism and predicting dynamic trends,a hybrid prediction model of convolutional neural net-work(CNN)and Kolmogorov Arnold network(KAN)integrating multi-source information is established.Taking the slope deforma-tion of the southern dump in south Hesigewula Open-pit Coal Mine in Inner Mongolia as a background,the response relationship between slope displacement and rainfall factors is quantitatively revealed based on Pearson correlation analysis.The optimal rainfall influence period affecting the deformation of the southern slope is determined.The established prediction model is trained and valid-ated using existing rainfall and displacement monitoring data.The long-term displacement evolution trend of the slope under differ-ent rainfall scenarios(reducing rainfall intensity by 10%and increasing rainfall intensity by 10%)is simulated at selected GNSS monitoring points.The results show that:① compared with traditional models,the proposed CNN-KAN hybrid prediction model demonstrates superior accuracy in predicting rainfall-induced slope deformation scenarios on the same dataset;② seasonal rainfall exhibits a lag effect on slope deformation,with the displacement-rainfall correlation coefficient at the south dumping slope decreas-ing below 0.2 when cumulative precipitation time reach 11 days;③ according to the model's prediction,when the rainfall intensity increases by 10%,the slope enters an accelerated creep stage,and the cumulative displacement value can reach 558.12 mm,and the southern slope shows a significant trend of secondary landslide development.关键词
露天矿山/边坡变形/多源信息融合/边坡稳定性/滑坡预测模型Key words
open-pit mine/slope deformation/multi-source information fusion/slope stability/landslide prediction model分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
张令非,王忠鑫,曾祥玉,辛凤阳,张凯,曹建,周子涵..基于CNN-KAN混合模型的露天矿多源信息融合滑坡预测研究[J].煤矿安全,2025,56(9):61-70,10.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项资助项目(2024A01002-4) （2024A01002-4）
中煤科工集团沈阳设计研究院有限公司科技创新资助项目(NKJ001-2025) （NKJ001-2025）
