铁路物流2025，Vol.43Issue(8)：54-61,8.DOI:10.16669/j.cnki.issn.2097-5899.20241113002
基于贝叶斯网络的铁路货场包件区装卸作业安全风险评估研究
Safety Risk Assessment of Loading and Unloading Operations in Railway Freight Yard Package Areas Based on Bayesian Networks
摘要
Abstract
To effectively assess the safety risks of loading and unloading operations in railway freight yard package areas,a risk assessment method based on Bayesian networks was proposed.Based on the current safety protection status in the package areas of railway freight yards and the analysis of the shed car operation process,26 risk items across 6 risk scenarios were summarized from the loading and unloading of goods in the railway freight yard.A safety risk assessment indicator system was established.By sorting out the causal relationships and regularities among indicators,a Bayesian network structure was constructed.The probabilities of root nodes and intermediate nodes were calculated.Bidirectional inference was performed on the risk assessment model,yielding the occurrence probabilities of leaf nodes and the posterior probabilities of root nodes and enabling reverse inference of key risk influencing factors.Through an example simulation,the overall risk probability of loading and unloading operations in a railway freight yard package area was determined to be 5.12％.Key risk factors that may lead to accidents included fatigue driving of loaders,improper maintenance of loading equipment,and cargo spillage during loading.The method provides a reference for actively preventing and resolving safety risks in the loading and unloading operations in the railway freight yard package areas.关键词
铁路货场/装卸作业安全/风险评估/贝叶斯网络/仿真分析Key words
Railway Freight Yard/Loading and Unloading Operation Safety/Risk Assessment/Bayesian Network/Simulation Analysis分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
宁健,黄宝静..基于贝叶斯网络的铁路货场包件区装卸作业安全风险评估研究[J].铁路物流,2025,43(8):54-61,8.基金项目
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(RD2024Y007) （RD2024Y007）
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2024YJ233) （2024YJ233）
陕西省重点研发计划项目(2024GX-YBXM-536) （2024GX-YBXM-536）
