中国农学通报2025，Vol.41Issue(23)：64-73,10.
织金县水稻气象产量动态预报模型及适宜性区划研究
Research on Dynamic Forecasting Model and Suitability Zoning of Rice Meteorological Yield in Zhijin County
摘要
Abstract
The objective of this study is to explore the agro meteorological conditions and suitable climatic zoning of rice cultivation under the complex mountainous terrain of Zhijin County.The correlation between rice meteorological yield and meteorological factors was analyzed by mathematical statistics,the key meteorological factors affecting the growth and development of rice were screened out,a localized rice meteorological yield forecast model was established,and the forecast results were tested.At the same time,according to the meteorological data and disaster weather data,combined with various disaster indicators,the zoning map of rice planting suitability in Zhijin County was comprehensively drawn.The result showed that eight meteorological factors,including average temperature and sunshine hours in late May,precipitation in late June,precipitation and sunshine hours in mid-July,average temperature and precipitation in early August,and precipitation in early September,had the best correlation with the growth and development of rice in Zhijin County.The average forecast accuracy of the established localized forecasting model is more than 90%,and the forecast results are credible,which is suitable for localized yield forecasting.The zoning map of rice climate suitability showed that the climate of southern and western townships in the central part of Zhijin County was the most suitable for rice planting,while the suitability of rice planting in the northern and eastern towns was poor.The prediction model established in this study has good prediction ability for rice yield in Zhijin County.The generated climate suitability zoning map clearly reveals regional differences,which can provide an intuitive decision-making basis for optimizing local rice planting layout,avoiding meteorological disaster risk and improving yield level.关键词
气象因子/水稻产量预报/适宜性/区划图/气象指标Key words
meteorological factors/rice yield forecast/Suitability/zoning map/meteorological indicators分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨洋,柯莉萍,朱君,胡妍妍,衮毅..织金县水稻气象产量动态预报模型及适宜性区划研究[J].中国农学通报,2025,41(23):64-73,10.基金项目
贵州省气象局登记式项目"织金水稻生长的适宜性气象指标研究"(黔气科登[2021]03-12号) （黔气科登[2021]03-12号）
贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目"基于Ka毫米波测云仪的贵州西部冻雨、雪微物理和动力特征研究"(黔气科合SS-SZ[2024]11号). （黔气科合SS-SZ[2024]11号）
