环境与职业医学2025，Vol.42Issue(7)：808-813,821,7.DOI:10.11836/JEOM24568
2017-2023年寒潮对湖南省衡阳市居民住院人数影响:不同寒潮定义下的时间序列研究
Impact of cold spells on hospitalizations of residents in Hengyang City from 2017 to 2023:A time series study based on different definitions of cold spells
摘要
Abstract
[Background]The impact of cold spells on population health can be categorized into an inde-pendent main effect of extreme low temperatures and an added effect of prolonged low temper-atures.However,studies on the added effects of cold spells on hospitalizations remain limited. [Objective]To investigate the added effects of cold spells on hospitalizations of residents in Hengyang City,Hunan Province,and to provide a scientific basis for establishing a cold spell early warning system. [Methods]Daily meteorological data,air pollutant data,and hospitalization data from six tertiary hospitals of four districts in Hengyang City from 2017 t0 2023 were collected.A generalized linear model(GLM)combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to assess the added effects of cold spells on non-accidental hospitalizations,as well as hospitalizations for cir-culatory system diseases and respiratory system diseases,after controlling the main effect of temperature.The modifying effects of cold spell characteristics(intensity and duration)and individual characteristics(gender and age)were also analyzed. [Results]Compared with non-cold spell periods,the relative risks(RRs)of total non-accidental hospitalizations and hospitalizations across disease categories,genders,and age groups were elevated during cold spells of varying intensities and durations.However,the total effects of cold spells exhibited a"U-shape"nonlinear relationship with intensity and decreased with prolonged duration.During high-intensity cold spells(daily average temperature＜P5 and lasting ≥ 2 d),the RR(95％CI)for non-accidental hospitalizations was 1.71(1.21,2.42);the RRs(95％CIs)for males and females were 1.99(1.38,2.84)and 1.47(1.00,2.16),respectively;for individuals＜65 years and ≥ 65 years,the RRs(95％CIs)were 1.59(1.12,2.26)and 1.93(1.27,2.92),respectively;and for circulatory and respiratory system dis-eases,the RRs(95％CIs)were 1.84(1.22,2.79)and 1.07(0.71,1.60),respectively.No statistically significant differences were observed between the above subgroups.The single-day lagged effects of cold spells displayed a two-peaked pattern.The single-day lag RR for total non-accidental hospitalizations peaked at lag 1 d after cold spell exposure,declined thereafter,and began to rise again after lag 5 d,reaching a second peak at lag 12-13 d before gradually decreasing.The lagged effects remained statistically significant during lag 8-18 d.The lag patterns of cold spell associations across disease categories,genders,and age groups were largely consistent with those of total hospitalizations. [Conclusion]Cold spells have a significant impact on non-accidental hospitalizations of residents in Hengyang City,with notable lagged effects.The findings provide important theoretical support for establishing a more targeted cold spell early warning system.关键词
寒潮/住院/循环系统疾病/呼吸系统疾病/分布滞后非线性模型/附加效应Key words
cold spell/hospitalization/circulatory system disease/respiratory system disease/distributed lag nonlinear model/added effects分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
邓小明,邹观湘,彭卫雄,李斌..2017-2023年寒潮对湖南省衡阳市居民住院人数影响:不同寒潮定义下的时间序列研究[J].环境与职业医学,2025,42(7):808-813,821,7.基金项目
湖南省卫生健康委科研计划项目(B202312079347) （B202312079347）
