农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(4)：660-668,9.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0080
大食物观下农产品有效供给能力评估及动态演进研究
The assessment of the effective supply capacity and the dynamic evolution of agricultural products under the broader food connotation
摘要
Abstract
To systematically analyze the structural imbalances in agricultural supply system during the transformation of traditional food concepts and to assess the evolutionary characteristics of agricultural supply capacity in recent years,this study constructs an effective supply evaluation system for agricultural products under the broader food connotation(BFC-ESESAP),integrating both quantitative and qualitative supply dimensions,and employs the entropy weight method,the principal component analysis,and the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC)to assess the evolution of agricultural supply capacity from 2014 to 2023.Results show that China's comprehensive agricultural supply capacity has transitioned from a painful stage to a leap stage,with significant enhancement in effective supply.However,the transformation from the traditional food security concept to the broader food connotation remains incomplete.Specifically,the quantitative expansion of supply has been accompanied by the structural imbalances.Although the initial synergies between policy adjustments and market-driven pressures have emerged,the supply system remains entrenched in the traditional approach prioritizing staple crops over featured products,with insufficient exploitation of multi-source food resources.Despite an exponential-type recovery trajectory in supply quality,constraints persist,inlcuding insufficient endogenous drivers for green production,geographical misallocation of production factors,and workforce aging directly constraining quality enhancement.Accordingly,the study proposes three targeted recommendations:1)building a dynamic synergy mechanism of"policy-market-technology",2)solving resource constraints and structural contradictions,and 3)enhancing the green transition and factor adaptability.关键词
大食物观/农产品有效供给/能力评估/动态演进/综合评价法Key words
broader food connotation/effective supply of agricultural products/capacity evaluation/dynamic evolution/comprehensive assessment methodology分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王亚楠,张明月..大食物观下农产品有效供给能力评估及动态演进研究[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(4):660-668,9.基金项目
教育部人文社科规划基金青年项目"基于质量安全的菜农过量施用农药行为及其矫正机制研究"(22YJC790163) （22YJC790163）
山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2021QG009).Supported by Youth Project of the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund of the Ministry of Education"Overuse of Pesticides by Vegetable Growers and Correction Mechanisms:A Quality and Safety Perspective"(22YJC790163) （ZR2021QG009）
Youth Project of Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(ZR2021QG009). （ZR2021QG009）
