农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(4)：680-690,11.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2024.2016
"非粮化"还是"趋粮化":数字普惠金融对种植结构的影响研究
"De-grainization"or"grainization":the impacts of digital financial inclusion on cropping structure
摘要
Abstract
As a pivotal framework for ensuring food security,optimizing resource utilization,and stabilizing farmers'income,cropping structure adjustment faces dual challenges of accelerating farmland"de-grainization"and smallholder transformation constraints.Digital financial inclusion(DFI)with its capacity to optimize agricultural resource allocation and alleviate financial constraints emerges as a critical tool for agricultural modernization.Based on the 2018 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)data and applying the OLS regression and the KHB mediation models,this paper investigated the DFI's impacts and mechanism on cropping structure adjustment.Key findings include:1)There is a significant non-linear"U-shaped"relationship between the DFI development and the cropping structure adjustment,with an inflection point at the DFI index 316.8,demonstrating a sequential"de-grainization"orientation below the threshold and a"grainization"transition beyond it;2)Heterogeneity analysis reveals the divergent patterns:a classic U-curve persistence in main grain-producing/selling regions versus an inverted U-curve in production-marketing balanced areas due to the terrain constraints,while middle-high income agricultural households exhibit significant responsiveness compared to policy inefficacy among low-income groups constrained by the cognitive and endowment limitations;and 3)Agricultural machinery services mediate 8.7%of the U-shaped relationship through mechanization substitution and scale operation pathways.Based on the empirical findings,this study proposes the following policy recommendations:implementing differentiated policy delivery tailored to regional characteristics,differentiating development pathways categorized by functional zoning,synergistically empowering agricultural machinery services and financial resources,and enhancing the digital-financial infrastructure capabilities.These measures aim to curb the structural shift toward non-grain crop cultivation and safeguard national food security through coordinated institutional innovations in production factor allocation,technological adaptation,and policy implementation.关键词
数字普惠金融/种植结构调整/农机社会化服务/非线性影响/中介效应Key words
digital financial inclusion/cropping structure adjustment/agricultural machinery services/non-linear effects/mediation mechanism分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张晓莉,李智.."非粮化"还是"趋粮化":数字普惠金融对种植结构的影响研究[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(4):680-690,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY185).Supported by National Social Science Foundation of China(23BJY185). （23BJY185）
