热带地理2025，Vol.45Issue(8)：1473-1485,13.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240603
全球视域下难民流动的空间过程、路径中转及其驱动因素
Spatial Process,Route Transfer,and Driving Factors of Refugee Flow from a Global Perspective
摘要
Abstract
Since the beginning of the 21st century,the scale of global refugees has remained high,and disorderly refugee flow has seriously endangered regional security and development.Based on the forced displacement flow database of the UNHCR,this study explored the spatial process of refugee flow using temporal sequence and social network analyses.It introduces the"structural hole"theory and uses the"intermediary person"analysis method to explore the characteristics of refugee flow path transshipment.Based on the"extended population push-pull theory,"a gravity regression model is constructed to explore the driving factors of refugee flow.The study findings are as follows:1)From a global perspective,the spatial process characteristics of refugee flow present spatial limitations,regionalism,and globality,which are the result of dynamic interactions at multiple spatial scales.Specifically,refugee flow has shifted from"neighbor country diffusion"in the initial stage to"extraterritorial diffusion"in the later stage.In the initial stage of refugee flow,refugees mainly diffused to neighboring countries and countries within the region,presenting a significant regional conjugation feature.Over time,the distribution of the origins of refugees and the direction of flow showed a global trend.The regionalization of refugee flow is a prerequisite for globalization,resulting from the continuous development of regionalization;2)The"path transshipment"effect nodes are not usually high-value nodes of intensity centrality.The space is distributed around important routes or"crossroads"on various continents,regulating the flow of refugees within and between their subgroups and having complex and multiple refugee inflow and outflow phenomena.Their refugee policies often affect other countries,both within and outside the region,by influencing the refugee flow;and 3)The driving factors of refugee flow have dynamic characteristics because of the different causes of refugee outflows in different periods and regional heterogeneity.Unlike the migration factors of general immigrants,refugees are more likely to choose to leave due to unfavorable conditions in their countries of origin,and the attraction of destinations is relatively limited.The spatial process and path transshipment of refugee flow present significant differences at different spatio-temporal scales,which is the result of the combined action of"pull force,""push force,"and"friction force."This study pays attention to the perspectives and subjects that are not considered in existing research,and thus starts from the macro perspective of the global dimension,divides the temporal characteristics,and focuses on the analysis of the three subjects of"origin country,transit country,and destination country,"especially emphasizing the discussion of the"transit country"of refugees.This study clarifies the general laws of current refugee flow through the above approaches and provides a reference experience for global refugee governance.关键词
难民/人口重力模型/社会网络分析/难民问题/路径中转Key words
refugees/population gravity model/social network analysis/refugee issues/driving factors分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
贾光绪,熊理然,蒋梅英,蔡影..全球视域下难民流动的空间过程、路径中转及其驱动因素[J].热带地理,2025,45(8):1473-1485,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42071197) （42071197）
教育部高校国别和区域研究课题(2024-G10) （2024-G10）
云南省环印度洋资源与安全国际联合实验室建设专项项目(202303AP140002)阶段性研究成果 （202303AP140002）
