北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(4)：466-474,9.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025067
长江经济带碳排放时空演变特征及驱动因素研究
Carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt:spatio-temporal evolutions and their driving factors
摘要
Abstract
The"dual carbon"strategy,green and sustainable development policies necessitate a clear understanding of spatio-temporal evolutions and their driving mechanisms for carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,to formulate effective policies for carbon emission reduction and realization of low-carbon development.Data of carbon emissions,energy consumption,and economic development in 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001-2021 are subject to piecewise linear regression analysis,Tapio decoupling model,and LMDI model.Carbon emissions were found to have increased from 1.181 billion tons to 3.737 billion tons from 2001 to 2021.A significant breakpoint was found from 2011-2013,showing a pattern of rapid growth followed by gradual slowdown.A spatial pattern of"east＞central＞west"was identified.Decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth showed a clear trend of"expansionary connection-weak decoupling-strong decoupling"from 2001-2021.Economic output was found to be the main driving factor for increased carbon emissions,energy efficiency playing a significant role in the reduction of carbon emissions.Therefore enhanced energy efficiency,accelerated optimization in economic structure,promotion of regional collaborative reduction in emission are required to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.关键词
碳排放/时空演变特征/Tapio脱钩模型/LMDI/分段线性回归Key words
carbon emissions/spatio-temporal evolution characteristics/Tapio decoupling model/LMDI/piecewise linear regression分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
徐述邦,刘建峰,陈燕飞,程淑婕..长江经济带碳排放时空演变特征及驱动因素研究[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(4):466-474,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3205600) （2023YFC3205600）
