北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(4)：475-487,13.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025060
牟汶河流域"水资源-水环境-经济社会"耦合系统综合评价
Comprehensive evaluation of the water resources-water environment-socioeconomic system in the Muwen River basin
摘要
Abstract
Conflicts among water resources,ecological environment,and economic development have become increasingly prominent.Coordinating watershed economic development with water resources and ecological environments is a critical task for sustainable socio-economic development in China.Comprehensive evaluation is conducted in this study of the water resources-water environment-economic society(WEE)system in the Muwen River basin,to promote coordinated development and to support decision-making in basin planning.A multidimensional coupling evaluation system is constructed integrating Moran's I index with the PSO-SVR model,to examine interactive evolution patterns of the WEE system in the Muwen River basin in 2025,2030,2035.Temporal evolution is found to exhibit a declining trend,characterized by"high coordination(pre-2012)→ moderate coordination(2013-2016)→ low coordination(2017)→ moderate coordination(2019-2020)".Regions with higher indices for the water-resource,water-environment,and socio-economic sub-systems are found clustered in densely urbanized areas.Overall coordination of the coupled system peaked in 2015 but declined across all regions by 2020.Obstacle-degree analysis reveals that chemical-fertilizer application intensity is the dominant influencing factor,the most significant obstacles are largely concentrated within the water-environment sub-system.Scenario predictions suggest that water resources index will rise to 0.689 by 2035,the water environment system will undergo a U-shaped restoration cycle.These findings will guide sustainable development and green watershed governance in the Muwen River basin.关键词
耦合协调模型/空间自相关/PSO-SVR预测/障碍度分析/绿色流域Key words
coupling coordination model/spatial autocorrelation/PSO-SVR prediction/obstacle degree analysis/green watershed分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李一阳,杨荣雪,刘璇,王红瑞,张力,李晓军..牟汶河流域"水资源-水环境-经济社会"耦合系统综合评价[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(4):475-487,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3205601) （2023YFC3205601）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52279005) （52279005）
济南市财政水务科技创新专项资金资助项目(JNSWKJ202001) （JNSWKJ202001）
