北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(4)：506-515,10.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024203
基于VIC水文模型的黄河典型支流径流模拟及演变归因
Runoff simulation and evolution attribution of typical tributaries of the Yellow River based on the VIC hydrological model
摘要
Abstract
Climate changes and human activities both lead to changes in river runoff.Runoff of the Dahei River basin has shown significant downward trend in recent decades,threatening seriously sustainable development and utilization of regional water resources,and maintenance of ecosystem health.Analysis of runoff evolution and attribution is therefore conducted in this work,using observed runoff data from 4 typical hydrological stations in the Dahei River basin.The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to identify abrupt-change years in observed runoff sequences of the Dahei River basin.Abrupt-change year for runoff at Dianshangcun,Qixiaying,and Meidai hydrological stations was determined to be 1999,but for Sanliang hydrological station,it was 1995.The VIC hydrological model was constructed for the Dahei River basin.NSE and R2 values of the model during calibration and validation periods were found both to be above 0.6,indicating good simulation performance for runoff.Hydrological simulation was established based on VIC model for attribution analysis of runoff changes.The dominant factor influencing runoff changes in the Dahei River basin was identified to be human activities,with a contribution rate ranging from 77.1％to 90.1％,whilst climate changes accounted for 9.9％to 22.9％.These data will help understand runoff evolution and responses to environmental changes in typical climate regions of the Yellow River basin.关键词
气候变化/突变诊断/水文模型/径流模拟/归因分析Key words
climate change/abrupt-change detection/hydrological model/runoff simulation/attribution analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
邱宇昊,段利民,陈思易,王东华,张文瑞,杨璐,高瑞忠,王国强,刘廷玺..基于VIC水文模型的黄河典型支流径流模拟及演变归因[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(4):506-515,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3204400) （2022YFC3204400）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(黄河水科学联合基金,U2243234) （黄河水科学联合基金,U2243234）
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2022MS05055) （2022MS05055）
内蒙古农业大学基本科研业务费专项资助项目(BR221012,BR221204) （BR221012,BR221204）
内蒙古自治区科技领军人才团队资助项目(2022LJRC0007) （2022LJRC0007）
科技部重点领域创新团队资助项目(2015RA4013) （2015RA4013）
教育部创新团队发展计划资助项目(IRT_17R60) （IRT_17R60）
