摘要
Abstract
This research focuses on risk assessment methods for prefabricated building construction,proposing a fu-sion model that integrates game theory with combinatorial weighting and Bayesian networks to address issues associ-ated with unreasonable indicator weight assignments in traditional assessment methods.A technical approach for the Bayesian network,based on game theory combinatorial weighting,is constructed,and risk factors across four di-mensions—human factors,environmental factors,management factors,and equipment factors—are identified through a literature review.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight method are employed to de-termine subjective and objective weights,respectively,leading to the derivation of comprehensive weights through the game theory-based weighting approach.Taking a talent housing project in Guangdong Province as a case study,an evaluation system comprising two sets of evaluation indicators is established.The total weights of each factor and the conditional probabilities of secondary indicators are computed via Bayesian network analysis.Key risk factors are identified through both forward and backward reasoning,as well as sensitivity analysis.The research findings indicate that this model can elucidate the dynamic risk transmission mechanism and demonstrate enhanced predic-tive capabilities for high-incidence risks,along with increased sensitivity to extreme operating conditions.关键词
装配式建筑/熵权法/层次分析法/博弈论/贝叶斯网络Key words
prefabricated building/entropy weight method/analytic hierarchy process/game theory/Bayesian net-work分类
建筑与水利
