重庆大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.31Issue(4)：63-75,13.DOI:10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2024.12.001
中国制造业产业链现代化水平测度及动态演变分析
Measurement and dynamic evolution analysis of the modernization level of the industrial chain in China's manufacturing industry
摘要
Abstract
Currently,the global industrial chain is undergoing accelerated adjustment and reshaping.The security and stability of China's industrial chain face significant challenges.Enhancing the level of industrial chain modernization will become a key means to promote the high-quality development of the real economy and an urgent requirement to accelerate the development of a Chinese-style modern industrial system.Under the influence of the accelerating changes in the global market,the manufacturing industry has become an important area for achieving industrial chain modernization in the new development pattern.Enhancing modernization level of the industrial chain and promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry are of strategic significance for comprehensively building a modern powerful country.An in-depth analysis of the temporal-spatial evolution and spatial correlations of the modernization of manufacturing industry chain can not only provide reference for constructing a high-quality modern industrial system in China but also provide feasible suggestions for achieving coordinated regional development of the modernization of manufacturing industry chain.Based on this,this article constructs a comprehensive index system for the modernization of China's manufacturing industry chain from four dimensions:innovation,security,high-end,and greenness.The entropy method is used to measure the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain,and the Dagum Gini coefficient and local Moran index are used to analyze regional differences in the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain nationwide.The Kernel density estimation and Markov transition probability matrix are used to analyze the evolutionary trend of the development level of the manufacturing industry chain modernization in order to observe its dynamic evolution and steady-state distribution characteristics.The research results show that:First,the modernization of China's manufacturing industry chain is still at a medium-low level and presents an east high and west low distribution pattern in space.There is a catch-up effect in the eastern region,while the potential in the western region needs to be further explored.Second,overall,the regional differences in modernization level of manufacturing industry chain in China are decreasing,and the gap among provinces is slowly narrowing,with a weakening trend in spatial agglomeration characteristics.Third,the modernization level of manufacturing industry chain in China is constantly improving,but there is a certain degree of middle-income trap and backslide phenomenon.Western provinces and some northeastern provinces have long been at a low level,with significant room for improvement.Obviously,these research conclusions have important reference value for improving the modernization level of manufacturing industry chain.Specifically,considering the current background of supply and demand imbalances and weakening expectations,they provide insights into how to achieve regional coordinated development of the modernization of manufacturing industry chain in China.关键词
制造业/产业链现代化/中国式现代化产业体系/熵值法/时空演变特征/区域协调发展Key words
manufacturing industry/modernization of the industrial chain/Chinese-style modern industrial system/entropy evaluation method/temporal-spatial evolution characteristics/coordinated regional development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘奎兵,彭娟,王欢芳,傅贻忙..中国制造业产业链现代化水平测度及动态演变分析[J].重庆大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,31(4):63-75,13.基金项目
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题"'三高四新'战略下数字赋能湖南省先进制造业高质量发展模式与对策研究"(XSP22YBZ034) （XSP22YBZ034）
湖南省自然科学基金项目"数字经济推动产业链现代化水平提升的机理、实证与路径"(2023JJ30219) （2023JJ30219）
湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目"新发展格局下湖南省产业链现代化水平测度及提升研究"(22A0421) （22A0421）
湖南省教育厅科学研究优秀青年项目"湖南省制造业产业链现代化水平测度及动态演变分析"(23B0570) （23B0570）
