东南大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.55Issue(5)：1255-1264,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2025.05.005
风电场年发电量的不确定性研究
Uncertainty analysis of annual energy production for wind farms
摘要
Abstract
In the wind resource assessment of wind farms,the deterministic annual energy production(AEP)is generally calculated.This will neglect the uncertainty originated from various stages of the assessment,which could affect assessment results and investment decisions.Therefore,this paper presents an uncertainty analysis of AEP for the whole wind farm.First,by combining"Guidance document on probability-based an-nual energy production calculation methods"(CGC/T N006-2022)with existing studies,the uncertainty of various stages in wind resource assessment is explored and their uncertainty sources and quantification methods are focused on.Next,the uncertainties from each stage are integrated into the total AEP uncertainty of the whole wind farm based on sensitivity factors and the square root of the sum of the squares(SRSS)method.Fi-nally,this analysis process is applied to the uncertainty assessment of AEP for a plain and a mountainous wind farm.The results show that the AEP uncertainty for the plain wind farm is 15.38%,while the AEP uncertainty for the mountainous wind farm is 21.39%.This difference is primarily due to the higher wind speed-related un-certainty in the mountainous case,as well as the greater sensitivity factor of its power uncertainty to wind speed-related uncertainty.关键词
风电场/风资源评估/年发电量/不确定性Key words
wind farm/wind resource assessment/annual energy production/uncertainty分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
杨庆山,彭留留,蔡思雯,黄国庆,韦关祥,姜言..风电场年发电量的不确定性研究[J].东南大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,55(5):1255-1264,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金资助项目(U24A20174) （U24A20174）
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(52378480) （52378480）
重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金资助项目(CSTB2024NSCQ-LZX0010) （CSTB2024NSCQ-LZX0010）
学科创新引智基地资助项目(B18062) （B18062）
重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究重大资助项目(KJZD-M202300201). （KJZD-M202300201）
