东南大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.55Issue(5)：1283-1290,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2025.05.008
基于支持向量机方法的气候变化影响下台风生成预测建模
Typhoon genesis prediction model under climate change impact based on support vector machine method
摘要
Abstract
Tropical cyclones cause severe damage annually,making accurate predictions of genesis frequency and location crucial for disaster mitigation.This study proposes a support vector machine(SVM)-based data-driven approach for cyclone genesis prediction and evaluates its applicability under climate change sce-narios.Key meteorological parameters,including 850 hPa absolute vorticity(AV),600 hPa relative humidity(RH),vertical velocity(VV),sea surface temperature(SST),and 850-200 hPa wind shear(WS),are se-lected to construct a high-dimensional mapping for Western North Pacific(WNP,0°N-60°N,100°E-180°E)cyclone genesis prediction.The SVM model is trained using MIROC(model for interdisciplinary research cli-mate)historical data(1979-2014),with optimization of positive-negative sample ratios and train-test splits.It is then applied to MIROC6 SSP585 data(2015-2019),and predictions are compared with Japan Meteoro-logical Agency(JMA)observations to validate model performance.Finally,future projections for 2020-2100 under SSP585 are conducted.Results indicate an overall increasing trend in cyclone genesis frequency and a long-term northeastward shift in genesis locations under SSP585.SVM is effective for cyclone genesis prediction under climate change scenarios,providing insights for future risk assessment and disaster mitiga-tion.关键词
台风生成/支持向量机/机器学习/气候变化Key words
typhoon genesis/support vector machine/machine learning/climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
卫苗苗,方根深,葛耀君..基于支持向量机方法的气候变化影响下台风生成预测建模[J].东南大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,55(5):1283-1290,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52108469,52278520) （52108469,52278520）
中国科协青年人才托举工程资助项目(2023QNRC001) （2023QNRC001）
上海市教育委员会晨光计划资助项目(22CGA21) （22CGA21）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(22120220577). （22120220577）
