东南大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.55Issue(5)：1406-1415,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2025.05.022
考虑风向效应的极值风速分析
Analysis of extreme wind speed considering wind direction effects
摘要
Abstract
Wind direction,as a key factor influencing wind load variability,cannot be overlooked in extreme wind speed prediction.Historical daily extreme wind speed and direction data from 67 meteorological stations in Anhui province(1980-2020)were utilized for probabilistic distribution modeling and analysis of wind speed and direction,respectively.Using optimal marginal distributions,three commonly used Archimedean Copula functions were employed to establish a bivariate joint distribution model for wind speed and wind direc-tion.Based on the conditional probability theory of Copula functions,design wind speed zoning with a 50-year return period was provided for 16 wind directions across the province.The results indicate that the Gumbel distribution and third-order von Mises distribution are suitable for the marginal distributions of wind speed and wind direction at most stations in the province.According to the Akaike information criterion(AIC),the Frank-Copula function provides the best fit for the bivariate joint distribution at most meteorologi-cal stations.Significant differences in extreme wind speeds were observed among various wind directions,highlighting that neglecting wind direction in extreme wind speed prediction can lead to inaccurate results.关键词
极值风速/联合分布/风速和风向/Copula函数/条件概率Key words
extreme wind speed/joint distribution/wind speed and direction/Copula functions/conditional probability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
洪旭,陈天乐,许晋嘉..考虑风向效应的极值风速分析[J].东南大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,55(5):1406-1415,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52408522) （52408522）
安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(2408085QE149) （2408085QE149）
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(JZ2023HGTA0194). （JZ2023HGTA0194）
