地球学报2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：919-933,15.DOI:10.3975/cagsb.2025.052301
基于系统动力学的储能金属产业系统动态演化模型与模拟仿真
Research on the System Model of the Energy Storage Metal Industry Based on System Dynamics:A Case Study of Lithium and Vanadium
摘要
Abstract
The energy storage industry is a critical component of the new energy system.Lithium and vanadium are two major raw materials in this sector.Together,the energy storage industry and the energy storage metal industry form a complex interaction system.Constructing a system model of the energy storage metal industry is conducive to scientifically analyze its development trends,adjust development strategies in a timely manner,and ensure a stable supply of metals necessary for the energy transition and the achievement of dual carbon goals.This study used the lithium and vanadium industries as case studies.Based on methods such as material flow analysis,scenario analysis,and system dynamics,it identifies key indicators,factors,and processes within the energy storage,lithium,and vanadium industries.A dynamic evolution model of China's energy storage metal industry system was established,encompassing the energy storage industry,the lithium industry chain,and the vanadium industry chain systems.The interaction mechanisms and causal loops among these systems were analyzed.Given the uncertainties in the technical pathways of the energy storage industry,five different scenarios were designed.This model was used to simulate the development trends of China's lithium and vanadium industries,and targeted response strategies are proposed for each scenario.关键词
储能金属/系统动力学/产业系统/锂/钒Key words
energy storage metal/system dynamics/industrial systems/lithium/vanadium分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李媚,张宇民,陈其慎,张艳飞,邢佳韵,龙涛,王琨,任鑫,赵红坤,张晔..基于系统动力学的储能金属产业系统动态演化模型与模拟仿真[J].地球学报,2025,46(5):919-933,15.基金项目
本文由深地国家科技重大专项"战略性矿产资源综合评价"(编号:2024ZD1002000)、中国地质调查局地质调查二级项目"矿产资源国情调查与潜力动态评价"(编号:DD20230040)、中国地质科学院基本科研业务费(青年英才项目)"'十五五'国家战略性矿产厘定关键技术方法研究"(编号:JKYQN202330)联合资助. This study was supported by Deep Earth National Science and Technology Major Special Pro-ject(No.2024ZD1002000),China Geological Survey(No.DD20230040),and Central Public-interest Sci-entific Institution Basal Research Fund(No.JKYQN202330). （编号:2024ZD1002000）
