口腔疾病防治2025，Vol.33Issue(9)：773-783,11.DOI:10.12016/j.issn.2096-1456.202550115
1990-2021年中国人群唇和口腔癌发病率变化趋势及预测分析
Trends and predictions of lip and oral cavity cancer incidence in Chinese population from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the trends,gender,and age differences in the incidence of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population from 1990 to 2021 and predict future incidence trends,providing a scientific basis for dis-ease prevention and public health policy.Methods Incidence data of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed.The Joinpoint regression model was used to assess temporal trends,the age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the independent effects of age,pe-riod,and cohort,and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model(BAPC)model was used to predict incidence trends from 2022 to 2044.Results From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chi-nese population increased from 2.39/100 000 to 3.76/100 000,and the crude incidence rate rose from 1.71/100 000 to 4.85/100 000.The incidence rate in males was higher and increased more rapidly than in females.Higher incidence rates were prevalent among older populations,a rapid increase in incidence rates occurred during 2003 to 2012,and earlier birth cohorts showed overall higher risks.BAPC predictions indicated a continued rise in incidence from 2022 to 2044.During this period,male incidence stabilized while female incidence increased at a relatively faster rate.Conclu-sion The incidence of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population has revealed a continuous upward trend,par-ticularly among males and older populations.Future prevention strategies should focus on these high-risk populations.关键词
唇癌/口腔癌/发病率趋势/全球疾病负担数据库/年龄-时期-队列模型/贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列预测模型/性别差异/老年人群/流行病学/公共卫生策略Key words
lip cancer/oral cavity cancer/incidence trend/Global burden of Disease database/age-period-cohort model/Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction model/gender differences/elderly population/epidemiol-ogy/public health strategy分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张影,王妍心,仇永乐,赵佳红,段艳浩,李昆珊,吕飞飞..1990-2021年中国人群唇和口腔癌发病率变化趋势及预测分析[J].口腔疾病防治,2025,33(9):773-783,11.基金项目
河北省自然科学基金项目(H2024206476) （H2024206476）
河北省医学科学研究课题项目(20230930) This study was supported by the grants from Natural Science Foundation of Hebei(No.H2024206476)and Medical Sci-ence Research Project of Hebei(No.20230930). （20230930）
