干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：1549-1562,14.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.01
1981-2024年西藏地区平均风速及其资源时空变化
Spatio-temporal change in mean wind speed and its resources in Xizang from 1981 to 2024
摘要
Abstract
Understanding the characteristics of near-surface wind speed(Ws)is crucial in investigating dust storms,evapotranspiration,air pollution,and wind energy development.Based on the daily mean Ws at 38 meteo-rological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2024 as well as the indices of monthly atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures,we analyzed temporal and spatial changes in the mean Ws and its influencing factors.For this analysis,we used statistical methods,namely,Pearson's correlation coefficient,Pettitt mutation test,linear tendency estimation,and stepwise regression.The results show that:(1)The annual and seasonal average Ws and the number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s-1 decreased significantly at most of the stations in Xizang,and the Ws de-creased faster in northwest Xizang than in other directions.The number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s-1 decreased more in spring than in other seasons,and the number of stations with this Ws increased the most in winter among all the seasons.(2)In the past 44 years,the annual Ws and the number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s-1 decreased in Ti-bet at a rate of 0.08 m·s-1·(10a)-1 and 13.5 d·(10a)-1,respectively,mainly in spring.(3)In the 1980s,the annual and seasonal Ws in Xizang were relatively higher than in the rest of the study period,specifically in spring.In the 1990s,the Ws was high in spring and standard in the other three seasons with a typical annual outlook.In the 21st century,the seasonal and annual Ws were standard.The number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s-1were more in the 1980s and 1990s and less in the 2000s and 2010s.(4)In the past 44 years,the sudden larger to smaller shifts in the annu-al and seasonal Ws and the number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s-1occurred in the early 1990s and mid to late 1990s,respectively.The Ws showed a turning point from decreasing to increasing around 2010.(5)Except winters,the significant decreases in annual and seasonal Ws in Xizang were caused by global warming.关键词
平均风速/变化趋势/年代际变化/突变/大气环流指数/海温指数/西藏Key words
average wind speed/change trend/interdecadal change/climate mutation/atmospheric circulation index/sea surface temperature index/Xizang引用本文复制引用
杜军,次旺,黄志诚,德庆卓嘎..1981-2024年西藏地区平均风速及其资源时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(9):1549-1562,14.基金项目
西藏自治区科技重大专项(XZ202402ZD0006) （XZ202402ZD0006）
中国气象科学研究院青藏高原气象科学研究院开放课题(CAMS/ITPM2024K02) （CAMS/ITPM2024K02）
西藏自治区科技创新基地建设项目(XZ202401YD0008) （XZ202401YD0008）
