干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：1563-1573,11.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.02
甘肃省数值模式暴雨预报效果比较与性能评估
Comparison and performance evaluation of numerical model rainstorm prediction in Gansu Province
摘要
Abstract
Using the precipitation observation data of the National Meteorological Station and based on the mod-el evaluation tools test system,an evaluation was conducted on the precipitation prediction performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),Global Assimilation Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Global Forecast System,Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of CMA CMA-SH9 during the 2022 Gansu main flood season rainstorm.The Mesoscale(CMA-MESO),and Shanghai Numerical Prediction Model of results demonstrate that:(1)The four numerical models show simi-lar accuracy in predicting sunny and rainy weather,all above 0.80,with CMA-SH9 achieving the highest score for precipitation forecasts ≥50 mm,followed by CMA-MESO.(2)According to the characteristics of the impact system and circulation situation,the rainstorm in the main flood season in Gansu Province can be divided into three types:subtropical high marginal,northwest airflow,and low trough.The CMA-SH9 model has the best prediction effect for precipitation ≥50 mm,particularly for low-trough rainstorm processes,followed by the sub-tropical high marginal type.(3)Method for Object-based Diagonostic Evaluation spatial test indicates that the CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 regional models outperform the ECMWF and CMA-GFS global models in fore-casting ≥50 mm precipitation.In the rainstorm process on July 14,the CMA-SH9 model predicted that the cen-troid distance and axial angle deviation of the rainstorm were relatively small,and the prediction of rainstorm lo-cation and spatial trend was most close to the actual situation.关键词
数值模式/性能评估/暴雨/空间检验/甘肃Key words
numerical model/performance evaluation/rainstorm/spatial verification/Gansu引用本文复制引用
彭筱,孔祥伟,陈晓燕,吴晶,伏晶,李文学..甘肃省数值模式暴雨预报效果比较与性能评估[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(9):1563-1573,11.基金项目
甘肃省自然科学基金(24JRRA1182) （24JRRA1182）
甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(Ms2023-11) （Ms2023-11）
兰州中心气象台业务科技创新基金项目(LCMO-202304) （LCMO-202304）
