干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：1628-1639,12.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.07
气候变化背景下软紫草在中国的潜在适生区预测
Prediction of the suitable distribution areas of Arnebia euchroma(Boraginaceae)in China under change climate conditions
摘要
Abstract
This study explored the potential distribution and ecological adaptability of Arnebia euchroma in Chi-na and provides a theoretical basis for the protection,rational development,and use of wild plant resources of A.euchroma.Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,51 distribution points and 11 environmental factors of A.euchroma in China were predicted as potentially suitable areas,and the main environmental factors that in-fluence the distribution of A.euchroma were discussed.The potentially suitable areas in China were predicted un-der the present(1970-2000)and future(2021-2040,2041-2060)climatic conditions.The results showed that precipitation of mean temperature of wettest quarter,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of warmest quarter,and elevation were the dominant environmental factors that affect A.euchroma distribution,with contribution rates of 36.2％,13.9％,10.1％,and 8.5％,respectively.Under the current climate background,A.euchroma in Chi-na is mainly distributed in the central part of Xinjiang and the northwest part of Xizang,with a total potential hab-itat area of 96.26× 104 km2.Compared with the current period,the climate scenarios of the next four periods did not significantly change the distribution of potentially suitable areas for A.euchroma.The total suitable area de-creased while the highly suitable area increased slightly.关键词
软紫草/最大熵模型/潜在适生区预测/气候变化Key words
Arnebia euchroma/MaxEnt/prediction of potential suitable areas/climate change引用本文复制引用
商淑静,刘丹辉,周轶昕,吴家驹,陆婷,李文军..气候变化背景下软紫草在中国的潜在适生区预测[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(9):1628-1639,12.基金项目
中国-塔吉克斯坦生物资源保育与可持续利用"一带一路"联合实验室建设与联合研究(2024YFE0214200) （2024YFE0214200）
新疆维吾尔自治区"天池英才-青年博士人才"项目 （）
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(32300183) （32300183）
新疆抗逆植物基因资源保育与利用重点实验室开放基金资助 （）
