干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：1715-1725,11.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.15
基于PLUS-InVEST模型的新疆碳储量时空演变与预测
Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Xinjiang using the PLUS-InVEST model
摘要
Abstract
Under the"dual carbon"background,exploring the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage and fu-ture scenario predictions is of great significance for maintaining ecological balance,promoting high-quality re-gional development,and achieving the goal of"carbon neutrality."As an ecologically fragile and climate-sensi-tive region,simulating past and future land use changes and carbon storage in Xinjiang can support the effective simulation of emission reduction strategies and ecosystem restoration efforts.This study,based on the sustainable development theory,integrates the PLUS-InVEST model to comprehensively assess land use changes and their impact on carbon storage in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2050.The main findings are summarized as follows.(1)From 1990 to 2020,the land use in Xinjiang was primarily composed of unused land and grassland,accounting for over 67％and 23％of the total land area,respectively.Both categories showed a decreasing trend,while other land types exhibited an increasing trend.(2)Grassland is the primary contributor to carbon storage in Xinjiang,and its degradation is the main cause of carbon storage loss.Between 1990 and 2020,grassland degradation resulted in a carbon storage loss of 224.16 t.(3)By 2050,under the ecological protection scenario,carbon storage is expected to increase by 6.19× 107 t.in contrast,under the economic priority scenario,it is projected to decrease by 3.52× 107 t.Through a quantitative evaluation of 30 years of past and projected future land use changes and their im-pacts on carbon storage,this study provides reliable reference materials and accurate data support for Xinjiang's land management decision-making.关键词
土地利用变化/碳储量/PLUS模型/InVEST模型Key words
land use change/carbon storage/PLUS model/InVEST model引用本文复制引用
张坤,吴新萍,刘永强,张丽芳,秦艳,杨雨鹭,淦惠..基于PLUS-InVEST模型的新疆碳储量时空演变与预测[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(9):1715-1725,11.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk1103) （2022xjkk1103）
大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202410755003) （202410755003）
