中国妇幼健康研究2025，Vol.36Issue(9)：16-22,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-5293.2025.09.003
呼和浩特市6～14岁儿童注意力缺陷多动障碍预测模型研究
Establishment of a prediction model of ADHD for children aged 6-14 years in Hohhot city
摘要
Abstract
Objective To develop a prediction model of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)for children in Hohhot city,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China.Methods In stratified sampling method,3 788 children aged 6-14 years in Hohhot city in 2023 were selected as study subjects.Among them,189 children were clinically diagnosed as ADHD(case group),and 3 599 children without ADHD were selected as controls(control group).A questionnaire was used to investigate family and child-related factors,and physical measurements(height and weight)were recorded.The data was randomly divided into a training set and a testing set.The training set was used to construct a prediction model.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were drawn to evaluate the model's predictive efficacy.Results Multiple regression analysis shown that after adjusting for gender and age,the following factors were identified as risk factors for occurrence of ADHD in children:intrauterine distress(OR=1.480,95％CI:1.214-1.804),intrauterine developmental disorders(OR=1.448,95％CI:1.120-1.872),abnormal stages of labor(OR=1.701,95％CI:1.219-2.373),inappropriate family education(OR=1.571,95％CI:1.190-2.076),parental disharmony(OR=1.452,95％CI:1.076-1.960)and emotional instability(OR=1.672,95％CI:1.210-2.310).C-indexes of the prediction model in the training set were 0.89 and 0.81 in the testing set.The areas under the curve(AUCs)of ROC curves of the prediction model in the training set and the testing set were 0.858(95％CI:0.698-0.952)and 0.779(95％CI:0.631-0.912)respectively.The calibration curves for both the training set and the testing set showed that the model's predicted results closely aligned with the actual observed results,suggesting that the prediction model had good discrimination and good calibration.Conclusion Intrauterine distress,intrauterine developmental disorders,abnormal stages of labor,inappropriate family education,parental disharmony and emotional instability are risk factors for ADHD in children.The prediction model has good performance and can serve as an important reference for clinical diagnosis and early intervention of ADHD in children.关键词
儿童/注意力缺陷多动障碍/宫内窘迫/宫内发育障碍/产程异常/预测模型Key words
children/attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder/intrauterine distress/intrauterine developmental disorder/abnormal stages of labor/prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
付俊鲜,杨光路,多红英,苏秦,李天霞,傅卓..呼和浩特市6～14岁儿童注意力缺陷多动障碍预测模型研究[J].中国妇幼健康研究,2025,36(9):16-22,7.基金项目
内蒙古自治区科技厅项目(2020GG0139) （2020GG0139）
内蒙古医科大学面上项目(YKD2022MS071) （YKD2022MS071）
