果树学报2025，Vol.42Issue(9)：2018-2027,10.DOI:10.13925/j.cnki.gsxb.20250121
气候变化对中国苹果生产空间演变的影响
Effects of climate change on spatial evolution of apple production in China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]As the world's largest producer and consumer of apples,China's apple industry has undergone significant spatial pattern changes in recent years under the backdrop of climate change,mainly characterized by the transfer and concentration of production areas.Understanding the key cli-matic factors influencing the spatial evolution of apple production is of great significance for optimiz-ing production layout and ensuring sustainable development.This study aims to systematically analyze the spatial evolution pattern of China's apple industry from 2003 to 2022,identify the main climatic drivers of its spatial evolution,and provide a scientific basis for policy-making and industrial planning.[Methods]Taking 23 major apple-producing provinces(autonomous regions)in China as the research objects,using panel data from 2003 to 2022,and applying comprehensive spatial econometric models and statistical analysis methods,this study systematically explored the spatial agglomeration pattern of apple production and its influencing factors.The specific research methods included the following as-pects:Firstly,in the spatial autocorrelation analysis part,the Moran's Ⅰ index was used to evaluate the spatial agglomeration characteristics of apple production,revealing the positive correlation relationship and changing trend of its spatial distribution.By calculating the global Moran index,the spatial correla-tion of China's apple production was analyzed.At the same time,combined with the local Moran index(LISA),high-value clusters(H-H clusters)and low-value clusters(L-H clusters)were identified to fur-ther reveal the spatial heterogeneity between regions.Secondly,a two-way fixed effect model was con-structed to quantify the impact of climatic factors(annual mean temperature,rainfall,frost days,hail days,and mean maximum temperature)on the spatial layout changes of apple production.Through model fitting,the contribution degree of each factor to the spatial evolution of apple production was de-termined,and regional differences were analyzed.Finally,the analysis of key climatic variables focused on two climatic factors,annual mean temperature and rainfall amount,to explore their impact on the spatial distribution of apple production.At the same time,by classifying different precipitation years(wet year,normal precipitation year,and dry year),the relationship between the spatial layout changes of apple production and precipitation was determined,thereby revealing that part of the water demand in the apple production process came from natural precipitation.Based on the above calculation results,ArcMap 10.8.1 and Origin 2024 software were used to visually analyze the spatial distribution charac-teristics of different major production areas,explore the differences in climatic conditions among re-gions,and provide a basis for formulating regional differentiated policies.[Results](1)China's apple industry presents a significant"agglomeration of superior production areas"feature.During the study period,the degree of spatial agglomeration as a whole showed a downward trend(Moran index de-creased from 0.175 6 to 0.107 7),but an advantageous production area centered on Shanxi and its sur-rounding regions was formed.Shanxi Province has always maintained the H-H agglomeration type fea-ture,indicating that the Loess Plateau Production Area has become the core agglomeration area of Chi-na's apple industry.(2)The layout of apple production areas shows a clear"westward and northward expansion"trend.From 2003 to 2022,the suitable temperature area moved northwestward,and Xinji-ang became a new suitable temperature area;while the traditional production areas in the North China Plain(Henan,Shandong,and Hebei)gradually transformed into sub-suitable or unsuitable areas due to the annual mean temperature rising above 15.4 ℃.The changes in the layout of the apple industry and the suitable temperature area are highly consistent.(3)The impact of climatic factors on the changes in apple production areas shows regional heterogeneity.Annual mean temperature,frost days,and mean maximum temperature have a key impact on the industrial layout;precipitation has a significant impact on the Bohai Bay production area and the Yellow River Ancient Course production area;both frost days and hail days have a negative significant impact on the characteristic production areas.(4)There are sig-nificant differences in production areas under different precipitation year.The Yellow River Ancient Course production area shows the best production performance in dry year;the Bohai Bay production area and the Loess Plateau production area show the best performance in wet year;the characteristic production areas and the Southwest Cold and Highland production areas show relatively small differenc-es.[Conclusion]This study systematically reveals the spatial evolution pattern of China's apple pro-duction and the influencing climatic factors under the background of climate change.Based on these re-search findings,the following suggestions are put forward:Strengthen the industrial construction in the core production areas of the Loess Plateau,and create a strong cluster and high-quality apple industrial belt;formulate differentiated apple cultivation plans according to the climatic characteristics of different production areas;establish and improve the meteorological disaster monitoring,early warning,and pre-vention and control system,especially for frost disasters.关键词
苹果/莫兰指数/空间集聚演变/气候因子/降水年型Key words
Apple/Moran index/Spatial agglomeration evolution/Climatic factors/Precipitation year pattern分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李晓鹏,刘霞,王玥,万闵喆,胡炜童..气候变化对中国苹果生产空间演变的影响[J].果树学报,2025,42(9):2018-2027,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(21XTJ005) （21XTJ005）
