河海大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.53Issue(5)：162-169,8.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2025.05.019
基于LSTM模型的宁波沿海风暴增水预报研究
Research on storm surge forecasting in coastal areas of Ningbo City based on LSTM model
摘要
Abstract
To enhance the timeliness and accuracy of storm surge forecasting in the coastal areas of Ningbo City,an intelligent storm surge prediction system using a long short-term memory(LSTM)model was developed.Based on historical typhoon records and virtual typhoon information,storm surges at tidal stations along the coastal areas of Ningbo City during typhoon events were calculated with the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model,creating a storm surge sample database.The LSTM model was applied to train the sample data of storm surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo City,and a robust and efficient intelligent forecasting model for storm surges in the coastal areas of Ningbo City was established through sample optimization and parameter calibration.The test results of No.202212 Typhoon Muifa show that when the number of trained samples exceeds 400,the constructed forecasting model can accurately achieve short-term(1-12 hours)forecasting of storm surges in the coastal area of Ningbo City.However,when the forecast period exceeds 12 hours,there may be significant deviations between the forecasting results and the actual data.关键词
风暴增水/虚拟台风/智能预报/LSTM模型/宁波沿海Key words
storm surge/virtual typhoon/intelligent forecasting/LSTM model/coastal area of Ningbo City分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
陈永平,王瑾琪,徐晓武,丁骏,谭亚,宗志锋..基于LSTM模型的宁波沿海风暴增水预报研究[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,53(5):162-169,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100) （2023YFC3008100）
浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D060010) （LGF22D060010）
宁波市水利科技计划项目(NSKA202538) （NSKA202538）
