海河水利Issue(9)：48-51,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2025.09.012
密云水库入库径流趋势及突变分析
Trends and Abrupt Changes in Inflow Runoff of the Miyun Reservoir
摘要
Abstract
Since the commencement of water transfer to Beijing via the South-to-North Water Diversion Project's central route in 2014,the Miyun Reservoir has assumed the critical role of a strategic reserve reservoir.After 2021,the reservoir is required to operate at high water levels,making its role in water resource allocation increasingly vital.In this study,a detailed analysis was conducted on the inflow runoff of Miyun Reservoir from 1960 to 2022 using linear regression,Mann-Kendall trend tests,and characteristic analysis methods.The Mann-Kendall mutation test and ordered clustering method were employed to preliminarily identify hydrological change points in the inflow runoff series,and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to further verify the significance of these change points.The results indicated that the inflow runoff to the Miyun Reservoir has generally shown a decreasing trend,which had become more pronounced since the early 2000s.The years 1979 and 1998 were identified as significant hydrological mutation points.关键词
密云水库/径流量/趋势分析/突变分析Key words
Miyun Reservoir/runoff volume/trend analysis/abrupt change analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
杨文娇,张岑,刘腾飞,张冠宇..密云水库入库径流趋势及突变分析[J].海河水利,2025,(9):48-51,4.基金项目
北京市科技计划项目(Z231100003823005)"暴雨洪涝灾害智能感知及多源数据驱动风险预警技术研究与应用" （Z231100003823005）
