交通运输工程与信息学报2025，Vol.23Issue(3)：213-230,18.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.03.030
轨道交通与常规公交客流竞争的空间异质性分析
Spatial heterogeneity analysis of ridership competition between metro and bus systems
摘要
Abstract
[Background]The rapid expansion of metro networks in China has intensified the compe-tition between metro and bus in overlapping service areas.Previous studies typically overlook the spatial heterogeneity of environmental factors and thus cannot adequately explain the complex spa-tiotemporal mechanisms underlying this competition.[Objective]This study integrates spatial influ-ences from socioeconomic features,network topology,and the built environment into an analytical framework using a multiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model to overcome the limitations of globally fixed parameters and single-scale analysis in conventional models.[Methods]Focusing on the"5+1"central areas of Chengdu,this study calculated the ridership ratio between metro and bus on both weekdays and non-weekdays to reveal their spatial competition patterns.By integrating multi-source spatiotemporal data and performing tests for multicollinearity,spatial auto-correlation,and significance,12 key factors were selected to construct OLS,GWR,and MGWR models,thus quantitatively uncovering spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the ridership competition.[Results]The findings indicate that metro dominates the overall ridership share,whereas bus consti-tutes approximately 35%of the total ridership within the buffer zones of metro stops at certain net-work nodes.The goodness-of-fit of the MGWR model is close to 0.8 and its overall performance is superior,thus confirming that the formation mechanism of the ridership competition pattern between metro and bus depends significantly on the multiscale effects of exogenous factors such as the built environment.Metro shows distinct competitive advantages in transfer stops,high-priced residential areas,employment clusters,public cultural and sports facilities,and mixed-use zones,whereas bus dominates densely populated neighborhoods,schools,and tourism areas.[Application]The empiri-cal evidence derived from this study contributes to the formulation of a geographically contextual-ized public transit system and the strategic enhancement of the intermodal complementarity between metro and bus networks.关键词
城市公共交通/客流竞争/多尺度地理加权回归/轨道交通/常规公交/空间异质性Key words
urban public transit/ridership competition/multiscale geographically weighted regres-sion/metro/bus/spatial heterogeneity分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
姜小美,徐占东,陈正贤,刘晓波..轨道交通与常规公交客流竞争的空间异质性分析[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2025,23(3):213-230,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72201220) （72201220）
四川省自然科学基金项目(2024NSFSC1056) （2024NSFSC1056）
