生物灾害科学2025，Vol.48Issue(3)：461-467,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-3704.2025.03.59
基于CLIMEX模型的美国白蛾在江西省的潜在地理分布预测
Potential geographical distribution prediction of Hyphantria cunea in Jiangxi Province based on CLIMEX model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aim was to predict the potential geographical distribution of Hyphantria cunea in Jiangxi Province and improve the prediction of high-precision suitable area of H.cunea.[Method]Based on the CLIMEX niche model,the meteorological data of Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 1990 and the future period of 2030,the biological parameters and geographic information data of H.cunea were integrated.Through parameter calibration and model verification,the weights of 17 ecological factors such as temperature,humidity and precipitation were quantified,and the suitability evaluation index system was constructed.The spatial differentiation of the suitability level of H.cunea in Jiangxi Province in the future scenario of 2030 was analyzed.[Result]Under the current climatic conditions,the highly suitable areas for H.cunea were concentrated in the Poyang Lake Plain in northern Jiangxi and the Jitai Basin in central Jiangxi,accounting for 23.7%of the province.The CLIMEX niche model predicted that by 2030,the suitable area of H.cunea would continue to expand to the hilly areas of southern Jiangxi in the future.[Conclusion]Climate changes show that the suitable area of H.cunea has the trend of southward expansion.关键词
美国白蛾/CLIMEX模型/潜在地理分布/适生区/江西省/气候变化Key words
Hyphantria cunea/CLIMEX model/potential geographical distribution/suitable area/Jiangxi Province/climate change分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
吴云波,陈林,刘娜,袁浩,黄丽莉..基于CLIMEX模型的美国白蛾在江西省的潜在地理分布预测[J].生物灾害科学,2025,48(3):461-467,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32360270)和豫章师范学院大学生科研训练计划项目(XJ2024003301) （32360270）
