华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(5)：24-34,11.DOI:10.13300/j.cnki.hnwkxb.2025.05.003
危机还是机遇:中国农村劳动力老龄化与粮食生产
Crisis or Opportunity:Rural Labor Force Ageing and Grain Production in China
摘要
Abstract
The potential impact and threat of the rapidly ageing rural labor force in China on food security warrant close attention.Following the logical thread of"labor force ageing-capital deepening-grain production",this study analyzes the impact of an aging rural labor force on grain-output using a two-way fixed effects model and an instrumental variable approach,based on county-level panel data in 2000,2010 and 2020.The research finds that rural labor force ageing in China has not led to a decrease in grain production,but has had a positive effect,increasing output.The increase is driven by a dual capital deepen-ing path process,manifested through the substitution of mechanical technology and the emergence of new agricultural management entities.Simply put,during the structural transformation phase characterized by an aging labor force in China,dual capital deepening serves as a fundamental pathway to transform the impact of rural labor force ageing into increased grain production and a food security guarantee.关键词
农村劳动力老龄化/粮食产量/农业机械化/新型农业经营主体Key words
rural labor force ageing/food production/agricultural mechanisation/new types of ag-ricultural management entities分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
胡新艳,黎燕玲,陈相泼..危机还是机遇:中国农村劳动力老龄化与粮食生产[J].华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,(5):24-34,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"新型农村集体经济的发展路径、运行机制与政策支持研究"(23&ZD112) （23&ZD112）
"广东省哲学社会科学创新工程第二批特别委托项目"深化广东农村集体产权改革促进共同富裕的运行机制研究"(GD24WTCXGC08)" （GD24WTCXGC08）
浙江省教育厅科研项目"返乡创业驱动县域城乡融合的机理与对策研究"(Y202455028)". （Y202455028）
